Coliseum’s $106M Bet on NCR Atleos: A Desperate Gamble or Divine Providence?

In the fevered hush of Connecticut’s financial lairs, Coliseum Capital Management-its soul parched by the thirst of capital-has cast its dice upon the altar of NCR Atleos. The SEC’s November 14 filing reveals a purchase of 1.1 million shares, a sum of $60 million added to their prior holdings, swelling the total to $106.3 million as of September 30. A wager, one might say, not merely of money but of faith.

What Happened

The third quarter saw Coliseum’s hands tremble toward NCR Atleos, their fingers closing around 2.7 million shares. The gesture was not idle; it was a declaration, a testament to the fund’s conviction-or perhaps, a confession of desperation. The stock, now 10.4% of Coliseum’s 13F-reported AUM, perches as their third-largest holding, a pyrrhic triumph in a world where even victory whispers with the scent of ruin.

What Else to Know

Among the fund’s top five holdings, Atleos stands as a sinner among saints. Consider the others: SONO ($235.9M, 23% of AUM), HRI ($222.3M, 21.7%), MBC ($99.6M, 9.7%), and UTI ($88.4M, 8.6%). Yet Atleos, with its 10.4%, is the wild card-a gambler’s hand in a game where the house always wins.

Company Overview

Metric Value
Price (as of market close Friday) $37.07
Market Capitalization $2.7 billion
Revenue (TTM) $4.3 billion
Net Income (TTM) $131 million

Company Snapshot

NCR Atleos, that grand architect of self-service banking, operates with the solemnity of a cathedral. Its ATMs, interactive teller machines, and payment networks are not mere tools but sacraments for the modern age. Yet in this cathedral, the pews are empty, the clergy restless. The company’s global footprint is vast, but its soul is fractured-a spin-off from a digital commerce business in 2023, now teetering between salvation and oblivion. Does it seek redemption through margin improvements, or is it doomed to the purgatory of stagnation?

Foolish Take

Coliseum’s bet is a parable of our times. Atleos, freshly severed from its parent, is a newborn in a world of wolves. Yet Coliseum, that old sinner, stakes its reputation on the infant’s survival. The third-quarter results-$1.1B revenue, 4% growth, net income up 24%-are a flicker of hope. But hope, in the market’s lexicon, is a currency that evaporates like mist. The ATM-as-a-service business, growing at 40%, is a promise, but promises are the easiest lies to sell. And what of the Middle East and Latin America? New markets, yes, but ones where the ground shifts like sand beneath one’s feet.

Shares trade at $37.07, up 13% year-over-year. A modest ascent, yet it lingers like a ghost at the edge of the S&P 500’s 14% gain. Is this a triumph of reason, or the delirium of a man who sees patterns in smoke? The answer, perhaps, lies in the abyss where every investor eventually gazes-and finds their reflection.

Glossary

13F AUM: The total market value of securities reported by an institutional investment manager in quarterly SEC Form 13F filings.
AUM (Assets Under Management): The total market value of investments managed on behalf of clients by an investment firm.
Stake: The ownership interest or percentage of a company held by an investor or investment firm.
Trailing twelve months (TTM): The 12-month period ending with the most recent quarterly report.
Forward P/E: Price-to-earnings ratio using forecasted earnings for the next 12 months, indicating expected valuation.
EV/EBITDA: Enterprise value divided by earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization; a measure of company valuation.
Holding: A specific security or asset owned within an investment portfolio.
Outperforming: Achieving a higher return than a benchmark index or comparable investment.
52-week high: The highest price at which a security has traded during the past year.
Self-service banking solutions: Technology enabling customers to perform banking transactions without direct assistance, such as ATMs or interactive teller machines.
Recurring service contracts: Agreements that provide ongoing services and generate repeated revenue over time.
Managed network infrastructure: Outsourced management and maintenance of an organization’s networking hardware, software, and services.

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2025-11-29 21:59