The market, dear reader, is a stage, and today, Cohu (COHU 6.94%) finds itself decidedly in the wings. A decline of 7.2% as of this afternoon is, shall we say, a rather emphatic punctuation mark on an otherwise placid session for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite. It appears enthusiasm for semiconductors, like virtue, is not always rewarded.
Yesterday’s earnings report delivered a curious paradox: revenue aligned with expectations, yet a loss exceeding them. One might observe that meeting forecasts is merely avoiding failure, while exceeding loss is a feat of remarkable, if unwelcome, ambition.
A Quarter’s Disappointment
Cohu’s fourth-quarter pronouncements revealed a non-GAAP loss of $0.15 on revenue of $122.2 million. Sales, while a respectable 30% higher year-over-year, merely confirmed the commonplace. Wall Street, it seems, anticipated a profit of $0.06 per share – a testament to the enduring human capacity for optimistic delusion. The market, predictably, reacted with the cold logic of a disappointed creditor.
The Road Ahead: A Study in Expectations
Cohu’s guidance for the current quarter projects sales between $115 million and $129 million – a range suggesting a commendable commitment to avoiding surprises. They anticipate a gross margin of approximately 45%, a notable improvement over last year’s 42.7%. One suspects this improvement is less a triumph of ingenuity and more a consequence of lowered expectations. It’s always easier to climb out of a trough than to scale a peak.
Looking further afield, Cohu foresees sales of high-bandwidth-memory (HBM) products reaching $15 million to $20 million this year. While a modest sum in the grand scheme of things, it offers a glimmer of hope. It is, after all, in the smallest details that the truly discerning find the most exquisite pleasures – and perhaps, a marginal increase in profitability.
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2026-02-13 23:33