Well now, gather ’round, folks! Citigroup’s very own Scott Chronert, a man who surely has a knack for seeing the silver lining in a thunderstorm, claims that our ever-growing budget deficit—now a staggering $2 trillion—might just be the best thing since sliced bread for our economy. 🍞
In a recent chinwag with CNBC, Chronert declared that the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which recently sauntered through the hallowed halls of the U.S. House of Representatives, is about as effective at trimming the deficit as a squirrel trying to eat a whole acorn in one bite. 🐿️
According to our dear strategist, financing this hefty deficit is like giving the economy a shot of espresso—stimulants galore! ☕
“We think that the proposal as it came out of the House adds another $600 billion or so to next year’s deficit. Now that’s the bad news.
The good news is we actually now have tariffs beginning to kick in. And our math is that tariffs could offset about $200 billion of that. So what ends up happening, all told, is that you go from this TCJA (Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017) extension, some puts and takes in terms of some tax, other tax cuts, some modest spending reductions, the tariff income and you’re back to about a $2 trillion deficit, which is where we are this year.
What that does from our perspective is two things – it means that financing this deficit is going to require ongoing higher treasury issuance, which means higher interest rates, potentially valuation overhang. On the other side, though, it’s still a positive fiscal impulse, which is net good for the economy, economic conditions. And most importantly, S&P 500 earnings.”
But hold your horses! Chronert does throw in a little caution, warning that this fiscal fiesta might just rain on the stock price parade. 🎉
“At the end of the day, higher rates presumably from a discounting of future cash flows perspective draws down or keeps a lid on where equity market valuations can go.”
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2025-05-29 22:02