Chips, Shadows, and the AI Specter

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TSMC expects this… surge to continue. First-quarter revenue projected to be between $34.6 and $35.8 billion. A 38% increase. One wonders if they are not secretly building a second moon, powered entirely by these chips.

Scrambling to Keep Pace with the Digital Deluge

But the most intriguing announcement, the one that truly caught my attention as a steward of capital, is the planned increase in capital expenditures. Between $52 and $56 billion. A significant jump from previous projections. This is not merely investment; it is a declaration of faith. A belief that the demand will not only persist but grow. It suggests a level of confidence that borders on… well, let us simply say it is reassuring to see such conviction in these uncertain times.

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Reports suggest that customers – including Nvidia and Broadcom – have been pleading for increased production. Supply constrained, they say. Capacity limited. One pictures frantic telegrams, desperate pleas for more chips, as if the fate of the world rested on the availability of these tiny silicon squares.

This increase in production capacity, of course, will alleviate the shortage. It will increase the supply. But it will also, inevitably, lead to… other things. New factories. New engineers. New accountants. The gears of progress, grinding relentlessly onward.

What This Means for Those Who Profit from the Machine

The results are, naturally, good news for TSMC investors. But they have broader implications. They suggest that the AI boom is not a fleeting fancy, but a genuine, transformative force. And that, in turn, is good news for Nvidia and Broadcom.

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This is clear evidence that the demand remains robust. TSMC, with its finger on the pulse of the semiconductor industry, has made a bold bet on the future. And that bet, I believe, is a sound one.

Reports from Microsoft – their CFO, Amy Hood, lamenting capacity constraints and lost revenue opportunities – only confirm what we already suspected. Demand far exceeds supply. The limited availability of Nvidia’s GPUs and Broadcom’s ASICs is driving prices higher and fueling profits.

The planned increase in production capacity should be music to the ears of Nvidia and Broadcom shareholders. It will translate to greater revenue, greater profits, and, ultimately, greater returns for those who have the foresight to invest in these companies.

Finally, both Nvidia and Broadcom are attractively priced, trading at less than 25 times next year’s expected sales. A bargain, in my estimation, for a piece of the future.

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2026-01-16 09:02