Now, most folks looking at stocks want a sure thing. A guaranteed upward trajectory. Something they can explain to their Aunt Mildred without sounding like a charlatan. But that’s like expecting a dragon to lay golden eggs – theoretically possible, but best not to hold your breath. I’m interested in potential, in companies that aren’t just already worth a king’s ransom, but are poised to acquire more. It’s not about picking the biggest pile of gold; it’s about finding the dwarves who are still digging.
Three companies currently occupy my attention, not because they’re cheap – the market rarely rewards sensible pricing – but because they’re at the heart of a peculiar form of modern alchemy: turning sand into… well, more sand, but sand that thinks. These are Nvidia (NVDA 1.29%), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM 1.83%), and Broadcom (AVGO 0.11%). Nvidia currently trades at a relatively modest1 $190, while Taiwan Semiconductor is the priciest at around $375, with Broadcom hovering near $340. I suspect, barring any unforeseen goblin raids or sudden shifts in the cosmic balance, all three will exceed $500 per share within five years. A bold claim? Perhaps. But I deal in probabilities, not prophecies.
The Silicon Oracle
All three are deeply entangled in the burgeoning realm of Artificial Intelligence. Nvidia and Broadcom design the intricate clockwork brains – the high-end computing units, as the technicians call them – and Taiwan Semiconductor is the master artisan who actually makes the things. They’re not fiddling with spells and potions, of course. It’s all transistors and lithography these days.2 This puts them squarely in the path of a rather substantial influx of capital, as everyone and their grandmother decides they need a ‘thinking machine.’ The sheer scale of investment in data centers is… well, it’s enough to make a dragon blush. This, naturally, will translate into growth over the next five years. Or at least, that’s the plan. Plans, as any seasoned adventurer knows, are merely suggestions made by optimists.
Taiwan Semiconductor’s management predicts a nearly 60% annual growth rate in AI-related chip revenue from 2024 to 2029 – a figure that, frankly, sounds suspiciously optimistic.3 Nvidia believes global data center capital expenditures will reach $3 trillion to $4 trillion by 2030. The big four hyperscalers alone are planning to spend $650 billion on capital expenditures in 2026. All this adds up to a situation ripe for… let’s call it ‘enhanced profitability.’
Nvidia: The Heavy Lifting
Taiwan Semiconductor and Broadcom have the easier task ahead. They need to rise by a mere 33% and 47%, respectively, to reach my $500 target. Honestly, if it takes them five years, investors might start sharpening their pitchforks. The current one-year price targets are around $460 for Broadcom and $420 for Taiwan Semiconductor, suggesting they’re already well on their way. I anticipate they’ll be knocking on the $500 door within two years, and certainly won’t be denied entry within five.
Nvidia, however, has a considerably steeper climb. It needs to increase by 163% to reach $500. A stretch? Perhaps. It’s already the largest company in the world, with a market capitalization exceeding $4.4 trillion. But consider this: big tech’s projected data center spend in 2026 is $600 billion, and analysts expect Nvidia to generate $213 billion in revenue this year. If Nvidia continues to capture roughly one-third of that data center spending, and the market reaches the forecasted $3 trillion in five years, that gives Nvidia a potential revenue of $1 trillion – five times its current intake. If that happens, the stock will not only reach $500, it will likely soar past it, leaving the rest of us mere mortals gazing upwards in awe. Or, at the very least, moderately pleased.
1 Relatively modest for a company attempting to build the brains of the future. One might expect a more extravagant price tag.
2 A process involving incredibly precise lasers and a substance remarkably similar to sand. The alchemists of old would be envious.
3 Such projections should be viewed with a healthy dose of skepticism. Optimism is a fine quality, but it rarely pays the bills.
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2026-02-17 18:32