Centrus: A Peculiar Bloom in the Nuclear Wasteland

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A most curious shift has descended upon the realm of energy, a veritable awakening of interest in the atom’s slumbering power. It is said that the insatiable hunger of these… ‘artificial intelligences’ and their data-filled caverns demand a prodigious supply of electricity. The Department of Energy, in a fit of ambitious pronouncements, now speaks of quadrupling nuclear capacity by the year 2050 – a target as lofty and improbable as teaching a pig to play the balalaika. They even envision ten reactors under construction by 2030. One suspects a great deal of paperwork will be involved.

And so, Congress, in its infinite wisdom, has authorized a generous outpouring of funds for nuclear innovation. Hyperscalers, those modern-day alchemists seeking clean-burning energy, and the United States, eager to disentangle itself from the dubious embrace of Russian sources, have unwittingly created a most peculiar opportunity. Enter Centrus Energy (LEU 11.59%), a company poised, not to conquer, but to… occupy a small, rather damp corner of this burgeoning market. Let us observe this creature in its natural habitat.

Centrus Energy’s Opportunity: A Domestic Fuel Producer, or a Well-Intentioned Bureaucrat?

Centrus, you see, provides the components, the enrichment services, the very technicalities of nuclear fuel. They primarily deal in this ‘low-enriched uranium’ – LEU, a substance as mundane in appearance as powdered chalk, yet capable of unleashing forces that would make even the most hardened tax collector tremble. Currently, they procure this uranium, acting as a middleman between the mine and the reactor, a position as thrilling as watching paint dry. Their customers, predictably, are the utilities that operate these… power plants.

They have an agreement, a rather delicate one, with TENEX, a Russian entity. A dependency, if you will, that causes no small amount of consternation in Washington. Waivers exist, of course, allowing the continued purchase of this vital substance, but these waivers, like all things bureaucratic, are set to expire in 2028, as decreed by the “Prohibiting Russian Uranium Imports Act.” A most cumbersome title, wouldn’t you agree? The result is a pressing need – a veritable panic, one might say – to replace approximately one-quarter of the enriched uranium currently imported from Russia. A logistical nightmare, to be sure, and a boon for Centrus, should they prove… capable.

Centrus harbors a grand ambition, a vision of transforming itself from a mere procurer to a producer of enriched uranium. They possess a facility in Piketon, Ohio, a sprawling complex that has seen better days, and a genuine opportunity to flourish as the United States seeks domestic suppliers. They are, after all, one of only two entities – Urenco USA being the other – approved by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to produce this standard commercial LEU. And, most remarkably, they are the sole company with an NRC-approved facility capable of producing ‘high-assay low-enriched uranium’ – HALEU, a substance that will power these next-generation small modular reactors and microreactors. A truly unique position, like a lone badger guarding a particularly valuable mushroom.

But alas, all grand schemes require funding. And so, in January 2026, the U.S. Department of Energy, in a moment of surprising generosity, awarded Centrus a task order of $900 million to expand its Ohio facility. This is merely a fraction of the Department of Energy’s broader $2.7 billion investment plan to strengthen domestic enrichment and jump-start these HALEU supply chains. A sum that, while substantial, feels strangely insufficient, like attempting to fill an ocean with a thimble.

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What Next for Centrus Energy? A Cascade of Uncertainty

Centrus projects that the first new production cascade – a series of centrifuges, endlessly spinning, to enrich uranium – at Piketon will be operational 42 months after funds and commercial commitments are secured and the buildout is fully mobilized. After that, the second cascade will take six months, and each successive cascade will take two-month increments. A precise timetable, to be sure, but one that relies on a rather optimistic assumption: that everything will proceed according to plan. A notion as fanciful as believing a politician will keep a promise.

Securing government funding is a momentous step, naturally. The stock, however, has undergone significant volatility, a consequence of its rather… ambitious valuation. It is currently down 41% from its 52-week high. While vulnerable to significant price swings, Centrus is, for those with a particular fondness for risk, an appealing stock. A curious bloom in the nuclear wasteland, perhaps, but a bloom nonetheless. One must simply hope that it does not wither before it has a chance to flower. A delicate undertaking, to be sure, and one that requires a healthy dose of patience, a strong constitution, and a complete disregard for the laws of probability.

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2026-02-13 00:02