Celsius Holdings (CELH) stock has been on a batshit crazy ride since its April 7th earnings report-a 43% spike that smells like someone lit a match to the dividend hunter’s ledger. But let’s cut through the hype. This isn’t Wall Street’s next cash machine; it’s a circus with a tiger named Alani Nu pacing in the ring. And if you blink, the lion (PepsiCo) might eat your dividends for breakfast.
Investors, you’re not here to chase vibes. You’re here to harvest. So forget the limited-time flavors and TikTok buzz-fix your eyes on NET SALES, the only metric that matters before the whole thing collapses into a sugar-fueled coma. Because when the music stops, the real story is written in numbers, not marketing fluff.
The key metric
NET SALES. That’s the goddamn linchpin of Celsius’ survival. Q2 numbers? A miracle-$739 million, up 84% year-over-year. But here’s the catch: Alani Nu did 129% growth while the Celsius brand limped forward at 9%. Like a one-legged man in a bar fight. PepsiCo is the only reason this ship hasn’t capsized. Their distribution deal? A lifeline. Cut that cable, and CELH goes down faster than a stock dividend in a bear market.
Remember March 2024? The stock hit $96.11 like it was a golden goose. Then came the slow drip of distributor issues, and the price nose-dived. This isn’t a company-it’s a paranoid delusion in a suit. Every quarter, it’s either a feeding frenzy of capital or a financial exorcism. And right now? The market’s a fickle mistress, dancing to the tune of Alani Nu’s explosive growth while Celsius’ core brand stutters like a diesel engine at idle.
Selling, general, and administrative expenses? 107% higher. That’s not a cost-it’s a nuclear winter in the balance sheet. Acquisition fever, marketing overkill… it’s like watching a junkie spend every penny on a fix. But hey, the U.S. market share crept up to 17.3%. Marginally better. Still, without PepsiCo, this is a house of cards built on caffeine and delusion.
So here’s the play: Bet on NET SALES like it’s the last roll of the dice. But watch PepsiCo-they’re the puppetmaster. And if their strings snap? You’ll be left holding the empty can of a once-great dividend dream. 🚀
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2025-08-20 03:17