US Stocks prediction

Individual establishments fared…variously. Sweetgreen, purveyors of remarkably expensive leaves, experienced a decline best described as ‘agricultural’ – an 80% collapse. Cava Group, offering bowls of… well, things, lost half its value. Even the mighty Chipotle, a fortress of predictable burritos, stumbled a 30% step backwards.¹ It appears the public, having indulged in a period of inflation-fueled extravagance, began to exhibit signs of… fiscal responsibility. A curious phenomenon, that.

The SEC filings, those bureaucratic scrolls detailing the comings and goings of capital, reveal that Strong Tower offloaded 342,799 shares during the last quarter. A tidy sum, vanished into the ether of the market. One wonders if they mistook the ETF for a particularly dull relative, finally severing ties. The fund’s value, at quarter’s end, felt the loss acutely.

Basically, Capital Planning dipped its toe into the AKRE pool on January 22nd. A $7.45 million splash. It’s not exactly changing the world, but it’s enough to make you raise an eyebrow. Especially when you consider what else they’re holding. I’ve been looking at their 13F filings – a truly thrilling way to spend an evening, honestly – and it’s mostly the usual suspects. Index funds, growth ETFs… safe bets. Which makes this AKRE move… a bit of a rogue choice, doesn’t it?

While Nvidia, with its graphics processing units, gets a good deal of the spotlight – a perfectly understandable situation, as blinking lights always attract attention – a strong argument can be made that Palantir, specializing in the rather mysterious art of data mining, is actually the top dog in this particular arena. The company’s shares, since the beginning of 2023, have performed a most energetic jig, leaping upwards by a staggering 2,300% – a performance that would make even a seasoned acrobat blush. Investors, you see, have latched onto what they perceive as a sustainable advantage and eye-popping growth, and who can blame them?

The promise, of course, is grand. To bridge the gap between human interaction and the cold logic of machines. A worthy ambition, certainly. They’ve had some success, linking audio recognition to generative AI, finding niches in places like restaurant drive-thrus and the increasingly complex dashboards of automobiles. It’s a start, though one wonders if the true test lies not in the technology itself, but in the willingness of people to converse with a disembodied voice when a simple human connection would suffice.

Apparently, they shifted 77,109 shares during the last quarter. A substantial chunk, yes. But it’s not a panic, I don’t think. More a… recalibration. Like deciding you don’t need all seven cardigans, even though they were on sale. The fund’s overall holding in VBIL is down a bit in value – $5.86 million, factoring in both the sale and… well, the market doing its thing. Which it always does, doesn’t it? It’s terribly distracting.

The pursuit of ‘regulatory clarity’ in the cryptocurrency space is a bit like attempting to herd cats using only interpretive dance. It’s a noble goal, certainly, and will undoubtedly generate a great deal of paperwork. But clarity itself is a slippery concept, particularly when applied to technologies designed, at least in part, to circumvent traditional systems. Nevertheless, a piece of legislation, rather creatively titled the ‘Digital Asset Market Clarity Act’ (Clarity Act), is currently making its way through the legislative process. It promises to establish rules, define terms, and generally impose order upon the delightful chaos of decentralized finance. (One suspects the primary beneficiaries will be lawyers.)

Mr. Thiel’s management of the Thiel Macro fund, amounting to some $74 million, has recently undergone adjustments which, whilst not dramatic, are worthy of consideration. A divestment of holdings in both Nvidia and Tesla – the latter reduced, rather than entirely abandoned – suggests a reassessment of their relative merits. It is a truth universally acknowledged, that a fund manager in possession of a good fortune, must be in want of judicious repositioning. The acquisition of shares in Apple and Microsoft, however, indicates a preference for establishments of a more… established character.

Gundlach, the Bond King, called some of these loans “garbage.” Garbage. He’s seen a few cycles. Dimon, over at Goldman, figured the lending standards were getting soft. Lenient. Like a bartender giving away free drinks. He expects issues if things turn south. And they always do, eventually.

The transaction, documented in a filing of January 29th, reveals a shifting of sands, a re-arrangement of pieces within the larger game. The fund’s weight within the portfolio, once a noticeable 2.48%, has now dwindled to a mere 0.07% – a ratio akin to a single volume lost within the boundless stacks of the Library of Babel. One might speculate on the motives of the custodians of this wealth, but the market, as always, offers only echoes, not answers.