Year to date, it’s up 26%. Twenty-six! Double the Dow Jones Transportation Index. The Dow! What is the Dow even for anymore? It’s like a relic. And people are actually paying attention to it? I swear, the market is just a bunch of lemmings following the shiniest object. And this week, apparently, the shiny object is a company that delivers packages. Groundbreaking.
There is a certain poetry, you see, in refusing to choose. To select a handful of favored companies, to build a portfolio around the celebrated names, is to acknowledge the inherent limitations of foresight. It is to believe, however subtly, that one can predict the future, that one’s judgment is superior to the collective wisdom of the marketplace. I, however, prefer to believe in the slow, inevitable logic of averages. To hold the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI +1.59%) is not merely an investment strategy; it is an act of faith in the boundless, chaotic energy of the American economy. It is to embrace the unremarkable, the forgotten, the companies whose names will never grace the covers of magazines, yet collectively form the bedrock of national prosperity.
The stock now rests some sixty-eight percent below its recent peak, a fall which, whilst precipitous, should not entirely obscure the remarkable history of this firm. One recalls, with a degree of satisfaction, that the company has, over a century, demonstrated a singular talent for navigating the complexities of the pharmaceutical world, a talent that has yielded a cumulative return of over thirty thousand percent since 1990. Such a performance, one might venture, is not to be lightly dismissed.
We, as observers of these cycles, understand that such precipitous falls are not anomalies, but the predictable rhythm of these nascent markets. Every few years, the fever breaks, the illusion shatters, and the unwary are left to contemplate their losses. Yet, within this turmoil, strategists at JPMorgan Chase discern a possibility, a faint echo of hope. They see, perhaps, a reflection of our own desperate yearning for something… more.
Despite these headwinds, General Motors has recently announced results for the fourth quarter that surpassed expectations. The message, delivered with a characteristic restraint, is simple: the company intends to continue returning significant value to those who have entrusted it with their capital. It is a narrative of resilience, a testament to the enduring power of established brands in a world increasingly captivated by novelty.
It is not, however, a time for wholesale rejection. Rather, a discerning investor might well find opportunity, provided they exercise due diligence and favor those holdings possessing a certain… pedigree. Bitcoin, whilst not immune to the prevailing winds, continues to maintain a position of considerable strength, whilst certain other claimants to attention appear decidedly less secure in their foundations.
Among those benefitting from this modest dispensation is the Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF (VYM +1.72%). With some $72.2 billion under management as of February 3rd – a sum that rather dwarfs the national debts of several respectable principalities – it holds a position of some consequence in the dividend landscape. The appeal, naturally, lies not in any particular brilliance of investment strategy, but in the sheer, relentless efficiency of cost-cutting.
The numbers, of course, speak for themselves – a precipitous fall of 23.9% since last Friday’s close. One almost expects a chorus of mournful violins. But numbers, dear reader, are merely the shadows on the wall. It is the why of things that truly concerns a discerning investor – or, indeed, a man who has seen a few empires rise and fall over a cup of lukewarm tea.
The analysts, those perfectly coiffed vultures, were expecting thirty-four cents a share. Thirty-four! They got forty-four. FORTY-FOUR! And sales clocked in at $136.5 million, a decent bump from where they were. Beating the lines, top and bottom. It’s enough to send the suits into a frenzy, popping champagne and preening. But I’ve seen this movie before. It ALWAYS ends badly.
