The augurs whisper of decline, while the hopeful still envision a future of gains. To foresee Nike’s state in three years hence is to attempt a cartography of shadows, a tracing of probabilities within a perpetually shifting maze.
Three companies, you see, are not merely participating in this AI frenzy; they are building the very infrastructure upon which it rests. They aren’t peddling dreams; they’re selling shovels – and exceptionally well-made shovels, at that. I speak of Nvidia (NVDA 4.43%), Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM 0.59%), and Broadcom (AVGO 0.67%). A modest $3,000 invested amongst them, I assure you, is far more sensible than chasing the latest unicorn.
The weighted average purchase price, as meticulously recorded on the aforementioned Form 4, was $113.92. The market closed on February 27th at $113.79. A discrepancy of twenty-three cents, a sum that, while insignificant in the grand scheme, nonetheless demands acknowledgment. It is a small imperfection in a system obsessed with precision, a reminder that even the most carefully constructed frameworks are subject to the whims of an indifferent universe.
The question, esteemed investor, is not merely which stock to buy, but which narrative to embrace. One is a frantic dash towards the future, the other a remarkably stable, if somewhat predictable, present.
Sirius XM (SIRI +2.07%), a company once hailed as a disruptor, now finds itself diminished, its trajectory a cautionary tale. The question is not whether it can deliver a life-altering return, but whether it can even arrest its own erosion. We must document, with a dispassionate eye, the forces at play.
Polymarket, that den of prediction-market vultures, is giving Bitcoin a 10% chance of hitting $150,000 by year’s end. Ten. Percent. That’s less than the odds of me finding a sober accountant in Vegas. And that, my friends, is a warning shot across the bow of this entire crypto delusion. A cold, hard slap of reality.
From where I’m perched, Coinbase isn’t just an exchange. It’s the crypto plumbing, the intricate network of pipes and valves that keeps the whole fizzy concoction flowing. And if that’s true, well, it might be rather ridiculously undervalued. You see, some things are best when you don’t see them working, like a good digestive system.
They just announced their 64th consecutive annual dividend increase. Sixty-four! It’s… excessive. Like they’re trying to impress someone. A ten-thousand-dollar investment gets you about $262 a year. Two hundred and sixty-two dollars! You know what that buys you these days? Approximately nothing. Still, it’s something. They’re predicting growth, naturally. Everyone’s always predicting growth. It’s the stock market equivalent of saying “have a nice day.”
For some time, Nvidia has enjoyed a pre-eminent position in the provision of these ‘artificial intelligence’ chips – a term one suspects is deployed with a generous disregard for its actual meaning. This dominance, however, has been complicated by geopolitical considerations. The United States, in a fit of strategic anxiety, decided to restrict the flow of advanced semiconductors to China. A perfectly sensible precaution, one might think, were it not for the fact that China represents a rather substantial portion of Nvidia’s potential clientele. Approximately 13% of revenue, even with these restrictions in place – a figure that, naturally, invites a certain amount of…negotiation.
This CORP-DEPO report—who even names these things?—says 68% of investors expect gains this year. 68%! It’s like they’re all in on some secret I didn’t get the memo about. And the Gen Z and Millennials? Leading the charge, naturally. They’re so optimistic. It’s exhausting. They probably think their avocado toast is an investment strategy.