
To claim the Shiller P/E is a perfect predictor would be to mistake a compass for a map. Yet its track record is troubling. Since 1871, the ratio has exceeded 30 on six occasions. Each was followed by a collapse of 20% or more. The first, in 1929, preceded the Great Depression. The second, in 1999, heralded the dot-com implosion. The third, in 2018, foreshadowed a 20% plunge. The fourth, in 2020, coincided with the pandemic crash. The fifth, in 2022, marked the start of a bear market. And the sixth? It is ongoing, with the ratio now at 40.15.
These are not mere numbers; they are the ghosts of past excesses, whispering warnings in the ears of the present. The Shiller P/E is not a crystal ball, but a rearview mirror. And what it reflects is a pattern as old as capitalism itself: greed, followed by fear, followed by a reckoning.
Consider the “next-big-thing” trends of the past three decades. The internet, blockchain, AI-each has been hailed as a revolution, only to be met with the same cycle of hype and disillusionment. Investors, like children at a candy store, have consistently overestimated the utility of these innovations. AI, for all its promise, remains a box of chocolates: you never know what you’re gonna get.
Though we’ve lived in this “new normal” since the 1990s, there is little question that stocks are now priced with the optimism of a man who’s just sold his car for a goat. History, that relentless pedant, reminds us that anchoring to such valuations is a fool’s errand. The market is not a machine; it is a theater of human folly, where the final act is always the same: the curtain falls, the lights dim, and the audience is left to count the coins in their pockets.
And yet, the performance continues. The music plays on.