US Stocks prediction

And who, you may ask, is putting his weight behind this prediction? None other than Philippe Laffont, a hedge fund manager whose performance has, rather conspicuously, outpaced the S&P 500 over the last three years. His belief that Shopify and AppLovin will be counted among the world’s 20 largest companies by 2030, while audacious, deserves a moment’s consideration. But let’s proceed with a grain of salt – or, if you prefer, a barrel of it.

Today marks Day 42 of my “enlightened investor” phase. Units of Cryptocurrency Lost: 12. Hours Spent Watching Charts: 9. Number of Panicked Texts to Friends: 24. But let’s talk about real money-specifically, how billionaires like Stanley Druckenmiller pretend they’re not just flipping cards in a high-stakes poker game with the global economy.

In its essence, a stock split is a mirror held to the face of commerce, altering not the substance of a company but the reflection in which investors choose to gaze. The reverse split, a desperate attempt to inflate value, is the province of the frail and the fearful, those who cling to the precipice of delisting like sinners to the hem of salvation. But the forward split-a 10-for-1, a 4-for-1, or even the audacious 15-for-1-this is the act of the bold, the prosperous, the enlightened, who understand that accessibility to the common man is not weakness but a testament to enduring strength.

The disappearance of Nike from Pershing Square’s 13F filings following the options conversion raises immediate questions about market perception versus fundamental reality. While the SEC-mandated disclosures create temporary opacity, the strategic shift underscores Ackman’s conviction in specific catalysts driving the athleticwear giant’s potential resurgence.

Amazon (AMZN) is the kind of company that makes you wonder if Jeff Bezos sneaks in extra hours to invent new ways to dominate markets. Yes, it’s gobbling up e-commerce like a squirrel hoarding acorns, but the real unsung hero is Amazon Web Services (AWS). While the world gawks at Prime Day sales, AWS is the quiet giant chugging along with 17% annual revenue growth. It’s like watching a tree grow-unseen but inevitable-and one day you wake up to realize it’s taller than your house. And with only 16.3% of U.S. retail online, there’s room for this oak to stretch further.

One might ask, then, with a mixture of disbelief and reluctant curiosity, what place does Oracle have in this narrative? A company with a market cap of $899 billion, not even remotely within the same dimension as its trillion-dollar counterparts, yet somehow entwined in the same dance of progression, of acceleration, a dance they cannot escape from. Oracle, despite its modest valuation, has begun to stir, its growth inching upward as if in an act of sheer, inexplicable persistence, a forward march against all logic.

But what if I told you reliable income doesn’t have to be dull? What if I said two utterly unglamorous companies – one that owns boring shops, another that owns pipes you don’t want to think about – are quietly printing cash like accountants laundering joy? Realty Income (O) and Oneok (OKE) aren’t sexy. They’re not going viral. But they’ve been paying dividends longer than your marriage has lasted. Possibly longer than your mortgage. And honestly? That’s the kind of loyalty you can set your watch to.

This particular stock isn’t just riding the AI gravy train-it’s building the tracks. Revenue growth? Double-digit? Triple-digit? Please, it’s more like “quadruple-digit” if you squint and ignore the math. Analysts whisper this sector could grow into a trillion-dollar pie, and our hero company-let’s call it “Nvidia” for now-is the only chef with a flamethrower and a business degree. (Spoiler: the pie is gluten-free, and it tastes like money.)

The Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF (VYM) is the financial equivalent of a neighbor who prunes their hedges with surgical precision and leaves you a jar of homemade pickles. It tracks high-yield dividend stocks, excluding REITs, which is a mercy if you’ve ever tried to explain what a REIT is to a family member who nods like they understand but is really thinking about their ex. With a 2.5% yield, it’s a gentle nudge toward passive income, though I’ve learned not to get too attached to any dividend-paying company that hasn’t existed since the days of vinyl records and rotary phones.

One might suppose these heights are now beyond reach, a fortress too lofty for mortal ambition. But lo! Our author, a portfolio manager of ton and discernment, assures us the gates remain unbarred. The AI revolution, that court fool in technicolor, is still in its infancy. And here, the CEO and CFO of Nvidia, twin jesters in the court of shareholder dreams, parley in trillions and gigawatts. Their dialogues are but a vaudeville act: “Behold, 3 to 4 trillion dollars in AI infrastructure! We claim 58-70% of each!” Yes, how charming.

CFO Colette Kress’s Monetary Masquerade

“We are at the beginning of an industrial revolution,” she declares-her voice as grave as a funeral dirge. “By the end of the decade, 3 to 4 trillion dollars shall be squandered on AI!” Note the air quotes: $3 [trillion] to $4 trillion. A presumably conservative estimate. One imagines her audience nodding solemnly, not minding the ambiguity of a “decade”-whether 2029 or 2030. Trivialities, these!

CEO Jensen Huang’s Grandiloquent Gambit

“Out of a gigawatt AI factory, we represent about $35 billion!”

A factory costing $50 to $60 billion! And Nvidia claims nearly half of this machination of madness? Whether 58% or 70%, it is all a game of cabals and counters. The audacity is laughable-yet, the market bows to Goldman Sachs-like gravity.

Macroscope and Microscope: A Treasury of Calculations

Let us now pretend a portfolio manager fares like a bean-counter in some satirical farce. If global AI spending ascends to $3-4 trillion annually by 2030, and Nvidia’s share remains a deus ex machina of 46-56% (after a 20% concession to AMD’s shadowy threat), then annual AI infrastructure revenue shall abide in the $1.38 to $2.24 trillion range. A delightful arithmetic!

Stock Price Targets: A Mathematical Mummery

With a closing price of $183.22 in October-and assuming Nvidia’s valuation remains as steadfast as a kleptomaniac at a bakery-our calculations yield a best-case range of $1,942 to $3,115, a base-case of $1,300 to $2,125. Note the “assumption” of unchanging valuations, which is to say: ignore the mundane reality of presentable growth ratios and pretend optimism is a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Auto Platform: The Punchline?

If the Auto platform’s driverless chariots, those rolling woolly blankets with a penchant for 18th-century manners, progress beyond their current state of pretense, one might adjudge the entire calculation insufficient. Yet let us not lose ourselves in this subplot; it is but a coloratura flourish upon a grand divertissement.

Epilogue: A Closing Curtain Call

Thus, with a beleaguered economy in the wings and a stock market as fickle as a jilted lover, we conclude our analysis with the assurance that Nvidia’s stock, whether in best-case outrage or base-case moderation, shall escalate in multiples so preposterous they might compel even the Bank of America to reconsider its algorithms. And should this madness culminate in a share price of $3,115, remember: a stock split shall be the final jest, for it is no more than a magician’s sleight of hand pastry-smaller in mouthful, no less absurd in the tale.

😊