Can Taiwan Semiconductor Overtake Apple by 2030? A Bold Bet on AI

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Right now, Apple is a $4 trillion company. That’s right – a trillion with a “T”. The second-largest company on the planet. And I, in my infinite wisdom and well-earned investor’s caution, am about to entertain the idea that Taiwan Semiconductor, a mere $1.4 trillion company, might one day top Apple by 2030. Am I mad? Possibly. But let’s explore this wild possibility, shall we?

At first glance, it feels like suggesting that my humble savings account could surpass the GDP of a small country, but bear with me. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC), though currently much smaller than Apple, stands on the cusp of something massive. As I examine the growth in its industry and consider the future landscape of AI, it seems plausible-just plausible-that TSMC could indeed achieve the unthinkable. But, of course, it’s going to need more than just a stroke of good luck to get there.

The AI Advantage

Let’s get one thing straight-Apple doesn’t exactly need an introduction. We all know Apple, don’t we? Its products are practically ubiquitous, its brand practically a religion. (And yes, I’m currently writing this on a MacBook. I know, I know.)

But, here’s the rub. While Apple has been making all the right moves-buybacks, cost-cutting-its revenue growth has been, well… somewhat lackluster. In fact, it’s been ages since Apple saw any real, robust growth. In the last couple of years, Apple has had exactly one quarter with double-digit growth. One. If you round up. And that’s not even considering the fact that market saturation means most people already own an iPhone, a Mac, or both. Where’s the room to grow, Apple? Where?

Now, TSMC, on the other hand, is absolutely smack in the middle of the AI race. And we know that AI is not just a fleeting trend-it’s the future. TSMC is making chips for everything from Nvidia’s GPUs to custom AI accelerators for Broadcom. The company’s technological advancements are already reshaping the industry. New chips promise to reduce energy consumption by 25-30%, without sacrificing speed. That’s not just a win. It’s a revolution, and it comes with a premium price tag. Investors like me? We’re intrigued.

But wait, there’s more. The AI sector isn’t slowing down. AMD recently projected a 60% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for its data center revenue through 2030, and Nvidia’s projections are equally optimistic, with global data center capital expenditures expected to skyrocket from $600 billion to $3 trillion-4 trillion by 2030. That’s a whole lot of AI-driven demand for TSMC’s chips. And, based on their Q3 performance-41% revenue growth in USD-it looks like the company is well-positioned to ride this wave.

Now, let’s get real. For TSMC to overtake Apple, it’s going to need an aggressive growth trajectory. I’m talking about a 40% EPS growth rate annually. That might sound like fantasy football stats, but it’s the kind of aggressive play that’s required to match the AI-fueled growth predictions. If those projections play out, TSMC could definitely have a fighting chance. But of course, I could be wrong. My stock picks often involve a lot of wishful thinking, a smattering of luck, and the occasional prayer to the investing gods.

What the Numbers Could Look Like

If Apple’s EPS grows at a steady 12% through 2030, it will hit around $13.52 by the end of the decade. TSMC, with its potentially explosive 40% growth, could end up with a staggering $57.08 in diluted EPS. And you know what that means, don’t you? Big numbers. Big, delicious numbers. But let’s not get carried away.

For those of us who live for the numbers, here’s the rub: multiply the EPS figures by shares outstanding, and then-here’s the fun part-apply an earnings multiple. Using today’s multiples (Apple at 36x, TSMC at 28x), by 2030 we’d be looking at Apple with a market cap of $7.2 trillion and TSMC at a cool $8.3 trillion. Who’s laughing now? Okay, so I might be getting ahead of myself. But it’s a thought worth entertaining, especially considering how the AI sector could boost TSMC’s earnings in a big way.

Will this actually happen? Who can say? I mean, it’s not like predicting the next big stock is easy. If it were, I wouldn’t have been holding onto my Amazon stock for years before it exploded. (Look, I was busy!)

But the truth is, if TSMC hits the marks we’re hoping for-if the AI revolution unfolds as expected-then yes, it’s entirely possible that it will surpass Apple. And with that in mind, my investment fingers are getting just a bit twitchy.

Until then, I’ll be watching… but also wondering if I should buy a few more shares.

Investment prediction, excitement level: high. 😬

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2025-11-24 15:47