Right. So, Campbell’s. (CPB +1.26%). It’s fallen. Dramatically. Like my attempts at a minimalist wardrobe. Reached a 23-year low, apparently. Honestly, it feels a bit…fraught. Everything feels fraught these days. I mean, stepping into a stock at its lowest point sounds sensible, doesn’t it? The rational part of my brain is nodding vigorously. The slightly hysterical part is picturing a very large, red financial loss. Still, I’m supposed to be a long-term investor. Or at least, that’s what I tell people at parties. And it’s a dividend stock. Dividends are good, aren’t they? Like sensible shoes. Let’s examine the wreckage, shall we?
The Numbers, The Gloom
They announced their first-quarter results. November 2nd, 2025. It wasn’t pretty. Organic net sales growth predicted to be somewhere between negative 1% and positive 1%. Which is…ambivalent, to say the least. And adjusted earnings per share? Down 12% to 18%. I made a list of things that are also down 12-18%: my motivation to exercise, the number of unread books on my nightstand, my tolerance for small talk. Then they updated it. Now it’s a 1-2% decline in net sales and a 23-26% drop in adjusted EPS. $2.15 to $2.25. Honestly, it’s enough to make you crave comfort food. Which, ironically, is what Campbell’s makes. It’s all very circular.
Apparently, consumer spending is…difficult. Who knew? I’ve noticed. It’s affecting everything. And, naturally, it’s getting worse. Because, just when you thought things couldn’t get more expensive, oil prices decided to have a little surge. February. It’s always February, isn’t it? The month of financial despair.
The earnings call was…informative. They blamed the fresh bakery and salty snacks. Goldfish, however, is apparently doing okay. Which is reassuring. Though I suspect even Goldfish have anxieties. They tried promotions, price adjustments…the usual. But there’s a distinct lack of optimism about a turnaround. It’s a bit like trying to fix a leaky faucet with a band-aid.
There’s a glimmer of hope, though. Meals and beverages are holding up. Rao’s tomato sauce is doing well. Apparently, people still like tomato sauce. Who knew? And the soup segment, focusing on cooking ingredients rather than ready-made meals, is also decent. It seems people are still willing to make things. Which is…encouraging.
Dividends and Desperation
They’ve slashed capital expenditures by $50 million and suspended the stock repurchase program. It’s all very…drastic. Trying to improve cash flow and address the debt load. Sensible, I suppose. And they’ve said they won’t be increasing the dividend anytime soon. But they remain committed to the payout. Which is…a relief. I mean, a dividend cut would be…unsettling.
Campbell’s hasn’t cut its dividend since 2001. That’s…impressive. Full-year guidance of $2.15 to $2.25 in adjusted EPS is still enough to cover the $1.56 annualized dividend. Though the margin for error is shrinking. Rapidly. But, given the 6.9% yield, it would still be in high-yield territory even if they cut it by a third or half. Which, let’s be honest, is a possibility. A very real possibility. I’m starting to feel a headache coming on.
Based on the stock price and the midpoint of the revised earnings guidance ($2.20), it trades at 10.5 times earnings. Dirt cheap. Though, of course, it could fall further. It always could. That’s the nature of the market, isn’t it? A constant state of potential financial ruin.
The Verdict (and My Anxiety Levels)
So, is it a buy? I think…maybe. It can still afford its dividend. The stock is cheap. And the portfolio of brands is better than the market is giving it credit for. At least, that’s what I’m telling myself. I’m trying to be rational. I’m failing miserably.
Some investors might want to wait for signs of a turnaround. Which is sensible. But I’m feeling…impulsive. Risk-tolerant, perhaps? Or just desperate for a decent yield? I might step in and buy now, given the valuation and the passive-income opportunity. I’ll probably regret it. But that’s my life in a nutshell. A constant cycle of hope, anxiety, and questionable financial decisions.
Units of Cryptocurrency Lost: 12. Hours Spent Watching Charts: 9. Number of Panicked Texts to Friends: 24. Will become disciplined long-term investor: 0%.
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2026-03-17 22:02