BTC’s New Year Gambit: Will History Repeat Itself? 🎰💰

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Bitcoin’s (BTC) 2025-ah, what a year of delightful chaos! One might say it danced the waltz of hope and despair, only to trip over its own feet in October. Yet, even as bears loom like vultures at a feast, whispers echo of a New Year miracle. History, that fickle old jester, insists BTC rarely spends the first week of January sulking. Why? Well, let’s call it the “New Year’s resolution” effect-because who doesn’t want to start afresh with a 10% surge? 🤷♂️📈

Joao Wedson, Alphractal’s oracle of numbers, claims BTC’s calendar is scribbled with bullish secrets. “The New Year,” he sighs, “is a stubborn optimist.” After all, only thrice in BTC’s history has January’s opening week ended in tears. A 66% chance of gains, you say? Perhaps the market’s learned to tip its hat to tradition-or maybe it’s just too exhausted to argue. 😌

The Eternal Struggle of Halving Cycles

Wedson, that tireless chronicler of cycles, notes a curious rhythm: from halving to halving, BTC’s weekly starts are a mix of hope and dread. Some 109-110 weeks begin with a cheerful yawn; others, a groggy sigh. The current cycle? A cacophony of 100 weeks of decline. Yet, 2025-a year of exceptional gloom-managed a mere 10% drop. A triumph, surely, compared to 2018’s “I’ll never recover” slump. 🎉

Long-Term Holders: The Market’s Silent Sages

Meanwhile, the Long-Term Holders (LTHs) sip their tea in serene accumulation mode. Axel Adler Junior, that wise sage of on-chain alchemy, reports LTHs hoarding like Scrooge at a gold mine. With a Z-score of -1.628 and SOPR above 1, these patient souls aren’t selling-they’re plotting. Perhaps they’ve mastered the art of “buy the dip” while the rest of us fumble with crypto calculators. 🧮🍵

And so, as the clock ticks toward midnight, one wonders: will BTC heed the ghost of New Years past? Or will it shrug, sip its champagne, and say, “To hell with tradition”? Only time-and a few panicked tweets-will tell. 🕒🍾

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2026-01-01 16:09