BTC to the Moon? 🚀 Math Says YES! 🤑

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According to a mathematical analysis by that most delightful of financial experts, Fred Krueger, Bitcoin (BTC) has a 77% chance of reclaiming its all-time high (ATH) this year. A figure, I daresay, that is almost as improbable as finding a sober economist at a champagne reception. 🥂

His outlook, brimming with optimism, adds to other experts’ predictions, who see a declining US Dollar Index (DXY) and rising M2 global liquidity as key catalysts for Bitcoin’s next bull run. One might be forgiven for thinking they’re describing a particularly vigorous game of croquet. 🏑

Will Bitcoin Hit an All-Time High in 2025? 

In a detailed post on X, Krueger, with the air of a man deciphering hieroglyphics, applied the Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) model to estimate the probability of Bitcoin rising from its current price of around $85,000 to $108,000 by 2025. A sum, one might add, that would make even the most hardened gambler raise an eyebrow. 🤔

  • A deterministic trend (drift) represents the asset’s expected return over time. It is often expressed as a constant percentage rate. A constant percentage rate! How dreadfully predictable. 😴
  • A random component (stochastic part) accounts for the volatility or unpredictability of asset price. It is modeled as a Wiener process (i.e., random fluctuations). Random fluctuations, you say? Sounds rather like my social life. 🤪

GBM serves in various financial applications, including pricing options, forecasting future asset prices, and assessing portfolio risks. 

For his analysis, Krueger initially assumed BTC follows a GBM with zero drift and 80% volatility. This yielded a 65% chance of Bitcoin reaching its all-time high of $108,000. However, he then adjusted the model to incorporate the coin’s historical growth trend, applying a 40% power law drift. A power law drift! One can only imagine the scandalous implications. 😈

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Currently, Bitcoin trades around 22.1% below its all-time high. BeInCrypto data showed that it declined 0.6% over the past day. At press time, BTC’s trading price stood at $84,338. A figure, I suspect, that will fluctuate more wildly than a politician’s promises. 🤥

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2025-04-14 14:36