Booking Holdings: A Dip & Dividend Contemplation

Booking Holdings (BKNG 0.52%) has, as of late, been experiencing what my grandmother would call “a bit of a slump.” Twenty percent off the high, they say. It reminds me of the time I tried to resell those Beanie Babies. Similar trajectory, though the emotional stakes were considerably lower. Everyone’s worried about AI, naturally. As if a computer program is going to suddenly develop a craving for overpriced mini-bars. The market closed Feb. 11, and I’ve been staring at the numbers ever since, trying to decide if this is a genuine opportunity or just another expensive lesson in optimism.

They report earnings on February 18th. Which, frankly, is a little too close for comfort. I always feel pressured when a financial decision has a deadline. It’s like being asked to pick a favorite nephew. Impossible. Still, the question is whether to buy before the report, or wait and risk missing whatever brief rally might occur. It’s a dilemma that keeps me up at night, alternating between spreadsheets and imagining the disappointment of my financial advisor.

The stock’s in a bear market, they say. Down over 20%. That usually means a buying opportunity, but I’ve learned to distrust anything that sounds too good to be true. My uncle once told me he’d found a mint-condition Elvis record in a dumpster. Turned out it was a cardboard cutout. It’s the same principle. So, why is it down? The AI thing, mostly. Which feels…circular. We built the algorithms. We’re the ones who will eventually be replaced by them. It’s a bit like training your own executioner.

They’ve invested heavily in AI, of course. An in-house trip planner, partnerships with OpenAI. Apparently, Kayak can now help you plan a trip using “conversational language.” I tried it once. It mostly just asked me if I preferred beaches or mountains, as if that narrows down the entire planet. Still, the revenue forecasts are surprisingly robust. Seventeen percent growth for Q4, twenty-two percent for 2025. That’s more than my retirement account has seen in years. Even 2026, with its estimated 18% increase, doesn’t look like a complete disaster.

And the valuation is…attractive. A P/E ratio of 28, below the S&P 500 average of 30. It’s like finding a slightly-used designer handbag. Still expensive, but with a noticeable discount. Analysts are predicting a forward P/E of 16, which suggests significant profit growth. Though, frankly, I stopped trusting analysts after the one who recommended I invest in pet rocks.

The stock is flirting with 52-week lows, and shows no signs of stopping. It’s like watching a slow-motion train wreck. You know it’s going to happen, but you can’t look away. I keep refreshing the page, hoping for a miracle. Or at least a slight uptick.

So, is it a buy before earnings? I think it might be. It feels…reasonable. I’m not expecting a windfall, just a steady, reliable return. I’m a dividend hunter, after all, not a lottery enthusiast. The AI concerns are legitimate, and the stock price is clearly on a downward trend. But the company is still growing, and the valuation is increasingly attractive. I’m leaning towards cautiously optimistic. It’s a bit like agreeing to go on a blind date. You know it might be a disaster, but there’s always a chance it could be surprisingly pleasant. Or at least provide a good story.

At a forward P/E of 16, Booking Holdings could rise after the report if investors get good news. It’s a gamble, certainly. But sometimes, the most rewarding investments are the ones that require a little bit of faith. And a healthy dose of skepticism. I’ll likely buy a small position. Just enough to feel like I’m participating, without risking my entire life savings. After all, there’s always the possibility that the algorithms will win. And then we’ll all be booking our vacations on robotic travel agencies. It’s a terrifying thought. But also, strangely…efficient.

2026-02-15 22:52

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