BNB’s Historic Crash: What’s Next?

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  • BNB is trading 37% below its short-term holder realized price. Oh, great, because nothing says “recovery” like being 37% below your own price.
  • The RSI is at 35.62, which is like “near oversold territory”-what’s that even mean? And the MACD histogram is shrinking, which probably means the market is getting tired of losing money.
  • Analysts say the $587 weekly support is the line to watch. Because nothing says “excitement” like a support level. And a double bottom? Like, really? You think that’s going to work?

BNB has hit a level so low, it’s like the market is doing a price discovery. Because who doesn’t want to know where the price is when it’s this low?

After dropping 89% from its October 2025 high of $1,400, BNB is now trading between $628-$629. That’s like, “Oh, we’re just getting started!”

Data, technical readings, and structural indicators are all pointing to this level of valuation, which in the past has preceded significant recoveries in BNB. What a surprise.

On-Chain Data Confirms BNB Is Trading at a Deep Discount

On-chain analyst OnChainMind says BNB is 37% below its short-term holder realized price. What a shocker, right? Because who doesn’t want to see their asset 37% below its own price?

Past cycles have shown that BNB tends to reprice sharply when it reaches this level. What a twist!

For all the criticism Binance gets, BNB has been the strongest. But hey, maybe that’s why it’s so stable. Or maybe it’s just the only one left.

Right now it is trading about 37% below its short-term holder realised price equivalent, a level that…

– On-Chain Mind (@OnChainMind)

The case for undervaluation is not based on a single metric. Oh, right, because why would you need just one when you can have a whole bunch of them?

Binance’s demand for BNB comes from fee discounts, token burns, and other investments. Oh, and they’re all so excited to keep buying it, even when it’s crashing.

That demand has not weakened even as price corrected sharply. When utility holds firm while price falls, valuation compression typically follows. What a concept.

What the Charts Are Saying Right Now

The daily chart is telling a story of a severe correction. What’s next? A turning point? Or just another day in the life of BNB?

BNB bottomed near the $550-$580 zone in early February 2026, recovering modestly to its current price of around $628. However, the broader structure still favors bears until a confirmed reversal is established. What a surprise.

The MACD reading shows the damage. The MACD line sits at 7.77 while the signal line sits at -51.20, producing a historically wide bearish histogram of -58.97. What’s next, a football field?

That said, the histogram bars are beginning to shrink, which analysts read as a possible sign of downside exhaustion. Or maybe they’re just getting tired of losing money.

The RSI at 35.62 is approaching oversold territory, with its moving average resting at 28.47. What’s that mean? Maybe it’s just the market’s way of saying, “I’m done.”

The $587 Support Level Now Defines What Comes Next

Analyst ZachHumphries identified $587 as the critical horizontal support on the weekly chart. Because nothing says “important” like a random number.

A successful defense of this level could produce a double bottom formation, which would set up a potential retest of the $800 range and beyond. What a plan!

Weekly view on looking heavy, but we are officially testing the $587 horizontal support.

The “air pocket” below us is thin until the $496 level, so keep a close eye on the weekly candle close.

1. Bull Case: A double bottom formation at S1 leads to a retest of $800+.

2.…

– Zach Humphries (@ZachHumphries)

Losing $587, however, changes the picture entirely. The analyst flagged a thin air pocket below that level, with limited structure before the $496 zone. That would represent a meaningful additional drop from current prices. What a disaster.

Traders on both sides of the trade are watching the weekly close before committing to a directional position. Because nothing says “excitement” like waiting for a candle close.

Two Paths Forward as BNB Approaches a Decision Point

The bull case for BNB centers on the $587 support holding and buyers building momentum from the undervaluation zone. Because why wouldn’t it? It’s just a number, right?

A recovery toward $700-$750 in the near term would be the first meaningful test of whether the bounce has legs. Breaking that resistance would then shift focus to the $800 target. What a dream.

The bear case remains equally valid. A failure at current levels without a strong weekly close above $587 would leave BNB vulnerable to a deeper correction. What a surprise.

The air pocket below support is thin, and a breakdown could move quickly. Traders are keeping position sizing cautious until the weekly structure becomes clearer. What a plan.

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2026-02-22 11:20