Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman: No iPhone Super Cycle in 2024, Bigger Upgrades Expected in 2025

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As a seasoned tech journalist with over a decade of experience covering Apple and its product releases, I find myself both intrigued and cautious about the upcoming iPhone 16. Mark Gurman’s insights, as always, provide valuable insights into Apple’s strategy and the market trends that shape it.

On a Monday unveiling, Apple presented several novel items, such as four distinct versions of the iPhone: the iPhone 16, iPhone 16 Plus, iPhone 16 Pro, and iPhone 16 Pro Max.

Later on that day, Mark Gurman, Bloomberg’s Global Technology Lead Correspondent, spoke to Bloomberg Intelligence and voiced his opinions regarding the forthcoming iPhone 16 and the buzz surrounding an Apple “super cycle.” In this discussion, Gurman gave a detailed explanation of Apple’s approach, expressing his reservations about the likelihood of a super cycle happening soon.

Initially discussing the iPhone production figures, Gurman pointed out that predictions indicate a possible yearly decrease in iPhone units sold. Yet, he clarified that this reduction in shipments might not equate to a fall in revenue. He underscored Apple’s ongoing efforts to enhance their premium models, with a focus on making the lower-tier Pro models more appealing to buyers. This tactic could lead consumers to choose the $999 Pro model over less expensive options, thereby boosting Apple’s Average Selling Price (ASP) for the iPhone range.

Although improvements have been made, Gurman remains skeptical about the possibility of a super cycle occurring. He describes a super cycle as a prolonged period featuring major hardware transformations. However, he suggests that the iPhone model due for release in 2024, the iPhone 16, won’t bring revolutionary changes and that the highly anticipated AI-driven Apple features are still being developed. These upcoming AI features, including notification summaries, call recording, automated transcriptions, and Gen Emojis, may not be fully operational until as late as December 2024. Therefore, Gurman advises that we should adjust our expectations for a super cycle in 2024, with the iPhone 17, expected to be released in September 2025, potentially offering more substantial upgrades instead.

Later on, Gurman discussed Apple’s AI platform, referred to as Apple Intelligence – Apple’s take on artificial intelligence. He mentioned that this technology is planned to debut with iOS 18.1. The features set to launch include voice memo transcriptions, voice recording in the Notes app, and the ability to create custom emojis, or Gen Emojis, which are expected to attract a younger audience. Gurman shared a story about his daughter’s fondness for Gen Emojis, suggesting that these features might strike a chord with specific age groups. However, he pondered if these features would boost iPhone 16 sales since they wouldn’t be accessible until several months after the phone’s launch.

One major factor contributing to Gurman’s doubt about an immediate super cycle is the planned rollout schedule for Apple Intelligence. Unlike past annual software updates in September, Apple is choosing to release its AI features incrementally over a six-to-nine month period. This change, according to Gurman, is due to the fact that Apple Intelligence isn’t yet fully prepared. He pointed out that this delay is largely due to Apple’s relatively late entry into the AI market, which started gaining momentum only after the launch of ChatGPT in late 2022. Consequently, Apple has been speeding up its development process, trying to compress what would typically take three to four years into less than two years.

Gurman discussed the idea of super cycles in Apple’s products, explaining why he thinks they are becoming less frequent for the company. He pointed out that the last genuine iPhone super cycle happened in 2014 with the launch of the iPhone 6 and 6 Plus. He suggested that two significant factors fueled this super cycle: the substantial growth in screen sizes and Apple’s agreement with China Mobile, the world’s largest telecommunications company, which expanded an enormous market for iPhone sales. Another significant surge happened in 2017 when the iPhone X was launched, raising the base price by $300 and introducing Face ID. The debut of the iPhone 12 in 2020, offering 5G connectivity across all models, also led to a substantial increase in sales.

According to Gurman, while it’s feasible that Apple may experience another technological boom with the launch of the iPhone 17 in 2025, he cautions against expecting such a surge this year, as there haven’t been significant advancements since the debut of the iPhone 12.

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2024-09-10 10:14