Bitwise Exec: Less Than a 10% Chance of Trump Establishing a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve in 2025

As a seasoned researcher with over two decades of experience in the financial sector, I’ve seen my fair share of groundbreaking predictions and bold moves by government leaders. Jeff Park’s statement about the likelihood of a federal Bitcoin Strategic Reserve in 2025 caught my attention due to its potential implications on the crypto market.

On December 26, 2024, Jeff Park, who leads Alpha Strategies at Bitwise Asset Management, sparked discussion by expressing his view on whether a federal Bitcoin Reserve will be created in 2025. He suggested that the chances of this happening are less than 10%, and he linked this notion to the possibility of Bitcoin reaching $1 million or higher only if such a reserve is established.

Park’s statement quickly drew a range of responses from the Bitcoin community, reflecting diverse opinions on the feasibility and implications of such a move. Let’s delve into his statement and the most common reactions to it.

The idea of a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve aligns with growing narratives about governments embracing Bitcoin as a strategic asset, similar to gold reserves. However, Park’s skepticism highlights practical hurdles, such as Congressional approval, political priorities, and the significant capital required to make such a reserve impactful.

A proposed law for a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve could require the purchase of 200,000 Bitcoins by 2025, which equates to approximately $20 billion at present prices. Advocates argue that this large influx could stimulate further action, leading to more businesses and nations incorporating Bitcoin into their strategies. This surge could make Park’s valuation theory seem less far-fetched, even though it appears ambitious now.

As an analyst, I’ve pondered over the debate surrounding the need for Congressional approval for establishing a cryptocurrency reserve. Some argue that executive authority might suffice, suggesting a scenario where President Trump could instruct the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) to procure Bitcoin. Given its traditional role in foreign currency interventions, the ESF, theoretically, could be redefined to handle Bitcoin transactions, thus creating an indirect strategic reserve without explicit legislative endorsement.

Supporters of optimism highlighted Trump’s public endorsement of Bitcoin, which was noticeable at the Bitcoin 2024 conference. They contended that his administration’s pro-Bitcoin stance and having crypto advocates in his inner circle might lead to daring actions such as establishing a Strategic Reserve. These individuals estimated the possibility to be around 70%, suggesting Park’s prediction was too cautious.

Nevertheless, some shared Park’s viewpoint, warning against presumptions suggesting a Strategic Reserve is unavoidable. They contended that overestimating the likelihood of this scenario could result in substantial disillusionment if the plans never come to fruition. This group emphasized that although a Strategic Reserve is an enticing idea, it remains largely speculative.

In order to grasp the nuances of the discussion, it’s crucial to re-examine the significant points Trump brought up during his talk at the Bitcoin 2024 conference on July 27. Trump admired Bitcoin as an exceptional technological breakthrough and a symbol of human collaboration. He speculated that Bitcoin would eventually outperform gold in market value and imagined the U.S. standing tall as the world’s foremost Bitcoin mining nation. To realize this vision, he advocated for all Bitcoin mining activities to take place within our borders, thereby elevating the U.S. to a dominant position in the Bitcoin realm.

Trump highlighted Bitcoin as an unprecedented invention, likening it to both a groundbreaking technological advancement and a symbol of human collaboration and success. He envisioned Bitcoin overtaking gold in market value, emphasizing its prospective role as a global financial resource. Moreover, he articulated aspirations for the U.S. dominating Bitcoin mining, advocating for all mining activities to be conducted domestically, thereby establishing the U.S. as a powerful force in Bitcoin.

Trump additionally voiced firm support for the liberty to personally hold cryptocurrency assets and vowed to instigate regulatory adjustments that encourage the expansion of the digital currency sector. He declared his intention to dismiss current SEC Chair, Gary Gensler, on his inauguration day and appoint a pro-cryptocurrency regulator instead. Moreover, he pledged to develop a regulatory system for stablecoins backed by the U.S. dollar, aiming to bolster the power of the American currency.

Trump contends that Bitcoin isn’t inherently harmful to the dollar. Instead, he attributes any perceived instability to government policies. He emphasized that a substantial portion of Bitcoin is owned by the U.S. government, hinting at plans to maintain and increase these holdings. These assertive statements have sparked discussions about potential radical cryptocurrency policies should Trump serve a second term.

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2024-12-26 18:05