- Ah, the wise experts have warned us! An Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could send the world into a frenzy. Who knew oil could be so dramatic?
- And lo! The Options market is buzzing with a premium for puts, revealing a rather bearish sentiment. Hedge, my friends, hedge!
On the 16th of June, Bitcoin [BTC] soared to a staggering $108K, as traders, in their infinite wisdom, positioned themselves bullishly, even amidst the escalating tensions between Israel and Iran. But alas, the euphoria was short-lived, as BTC plummeted to $105K, the war premium fading faster than a summer romance.
In a moment of market-induced panic, Tracy Jinn, the COO of MEXC crypto exchange, shared her thoughts with AMBCrypto, identifying a singular risk factor in this chaotic war.
“There’s still one big risk to watch out for: the Strait of Hormuz. About 20% of the world’s oil (20 million barrels) goes through this narrow stretch of land, and any kind of conflict could lead to a sharp rise in energy prices.”
Markets on edge
Jinn further elaborated that such a scenario would inevitably drive inflation higher by year’s end, triggering a risk-off move that would leave crypto and equity markets gasping for air.
“As crypto trades become more and more linked to macro assets, Bitcoin, which is often seen as ‘macro beta’ these days, is likely to see some fresh volatility.”
Speculations swirled about the U.S. possibly joining the fray, but lawmaker Thomas Massie, ever the voice of reason, insisted that they can’t just waltz into war without congressional approval. How quaint!
Moreover, prediction site Polymarket revealed a mere 2% chance of the U.S. declaring war on Iran before July. Talk about a low-stakes gamble!
In a Monday market update, crypto trading firm QCP Capital echoed Jinn’s sentiments, warning that U.S. involvement would lead to ‘repricing across risk assets.’
“A potential Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could drive oil sharply higher. Any direct US military involvement would likely result in significant repricing across risk assets.”
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Despite the chaos, BTC ETFs saw a whopping $412 million inflow on the 16th of June, reinforcing institutional conviction. Whether this positive trend will continue throughout the week remains a mystery, much like the plot of a Russian novel.
Jinn also hinted that BTC could reach a dazzling $150K by Q4, provided the ETF inflows remain positive. However, in the short term, the king coin may find itself at the mercy of liquidation hunts, as noted by analyst Will Woo.
If that’s the case, the next price magnet could be the $100K-$103K area, before a potential sweep to the $108K-$110K zone. A liquidity hunt could ensue if any positive deal is struck between Iran and Israel. Fingers crossed! 🤞
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2025-06-18 02:21