Bitcoin’s Trillion-Dollar Tango: Is the Four-Year Cycle a Myth? 💃💸

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Markets

What to know: 🧐

  • Bitcoin’s “realized capitalization” stands tall at a staggering $1.125 trillion, a record high, even as prices took a 36% nosedive. 🌊✨
  • Andre Dragosch of Bitwise quips that bitcoin is “underpricing” the macro backdrop, with a dovish Fed and resilient growth potentially flipping the four-year cycle script. 📈🤹‍♂️

Ah, Bitcoin, the eternal tightrope walker of finance, balancing on the edge of a $1.125 trillion realized cap, while its price plunges like a melodramatic hero in a Pasternakian novel. 🌪️💔 Is this the bull market’s last gasp, or merely a dramatic pause before the next act? The on-chain metric, which values each bitcoin at its last moved price, suggests the latter-a quiet rebellion against speculative frenzy. 🕵️‍♂️

Glassnode’s data, ever the stoic observer, shows the realized cap climbing through the 36% correction, only to stall like a poet mid-verse at $1.125 trillion. A similar hesitation occurred during the “tariff tantrum” of April 2025, when bitcoin flirted with $76,000 before soaring to new heights. 🦅⛰️

Contrast this with the 2022 bear market, when realized cap plummeted from $470 billion to $385 billion as investors capitulated like characters in Doctor Zhivago. But today? No such despair. The coins hold firm, their cost bases unshaken. 🏰💎

Four-year cycle narrative questioned 🤔

Andre Dragosch, Bitwise’s European sage, muses that bitcoin might defy its four-year cycle, much like a rebellious protagonist in a Russian epic. With global growth resilient and rate cuts steepening the yield curve, the U.S. dollar could weaken-a scenario historically kind to bitcoin. 🌍💵

“Bitcoin is underpricing the macro backdrop,” Dragosch declares, “to a degree last seen during the Covid recession and the FTX collapse, despite no signs of a U.S. recession and evidence of re-accelerating growth.” 🧮🤦‍♂️ Is this the dawn of a new era, or merely a fleeting illusion? Only time-and the blockchain-will tell. ⏳🔗

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2025-12-18 22:27