Bitcoin, that peculiar digital relic, has once again defied expectations. After vaulting 154% in 2023 and 119% in 2024, it’s up 27% so far in 2025—though not quite reaching the $123,091.61 peak from July 14. For those who once dismissed it as a fad, the question isn’t whether Bitcoin belongs in a portfolio anymore, but whether they’ve already missed the boat.
Yet here we are, staring at a price that’s perilously close to its all-time high. One might wonder if the market is merely holding its breath, waiting for a sigh of relief—or a full-blown panic. The tension is palpable, like a toddler clutching a balloon just before it floats away.
But let’s not mistake caution for wisdom. The forces propelling Bitcoin forward are as subtle as they are powerful. Allow me to present three reasons why the party might not be ending anytime soon.
1. A Favorable Macro Backdrop
The Federal Reserve, that enigmatic arbiter of economic sanity, last cut rates in December. Since then, it’s been playing a game of chess with inflation, which stubbornly clings to levels above its 2% target. Meanwhile, the stock market has been performing like a well-trained dog—reliable, if a touch predictable.
Yet there’s a growing sense that the Fed is itching to lower rates, as if it’s finally decided to stop treating the economy like a delicate orchid. Goldman Sachs, ever the optimist, predicts the federal funds rate will drop to 3% by 2026. Imagine that: a world where savings accounts yield less than a child’s allowance. In such a scenario, Bitcoin becomes less a gamble and more a necessity for those seeking returns.
2. Post-Halving Cycle
Bitcoin’s halving events—those curious rites of passage that occur roughly every four years—have long been treated as omens. The 2016 and 2020 halvings were followed by bullish surges, with prices peaking 18 months later. The latest halving in April 2024 feels like the opening act of a new play, with the curtain likely to rise again around October.
Of course, history doesn’t always repeat itself. But this time, there are more players on the field: spot Bitcoin ETFs, corporate treasuries, and regulations that, if not exactly welcoming, are at least less hostile. It’s as if Bitcoin has graduated from a niche hobby to a full-fledged industry.
3. Scarcity Matters
It’s easy to get lost in the noise of daily price fluctuations. But consider this: Bitcoin’s supply is capped at 21 million coins, a limit as immutable as the laws of physics. Gold, for all its allure, is still mined in increasing quantities. Bitcoin, by contrast, is becoming rarer with each passing year.
Imagine a world where investors, tired of inflation’s slow erosion of value, turn to assets that can’t be printed into oblivion. That world is already taking shape. The question isn’t whether Bitcoin will rise, but how high it might go when the crowd finally realizes what’s happening.
So while the skeptics mutter about bubbles and crashes, the rest of us might do well to remember that the most transformative ideas often begin as absurdities. And if nothing else, Bitcoin has proven it’s not afraid to be a little strange.
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2025-07-27 11:32