Bitcoin’s “MVRV Z-Score” Says HODL Tight—We’re Not at ‘To the Moon’ Yet 🚀

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So, here’s the big scoop:

  • That MVRV Z-Score thing? It’s only at 2.4. For context, bitcoin last called its mom from market-top land when this number got past 7. Translation: We still have some left in the tank, unless you think roller coasters are supposed to end before the first hill. 🎢
  • If bitcoin’s “market value” is much bigger than its “realized value,” it usually means we’ve all gone bananas and it’s time for a nap (or a crash). But right now? The stats are basically sipping a latte and scrolling TikTok, waiting for something exciting to happen.

Bitcoin

reached new all-time highs just over $112,000 on Wednesday. By “new all-time highs,” I mean it sort of bumped its head and looked around awkwardly, instead of doing cartwheels like last time. Sure, bullish companies are queueing up to slap bitcoin on their balance sheets—because naming your boat after Bitcoin is so 2017.

But wait! There’s more. All that on-chain data (you know, the nerdy stuff in spreadsheets) is side-eyeing historic bitcoin peaks and saying, “Not yet.” Meet the MVRV Z-Score—the Wall Street equivalent of your overanalytical friend who still checks their ex’s Instagram. This homegrown stat tries to sniff out if bitcoin is overvalued, undervalued, or just suffering through an awkward phase.

What’s the catch? Instead of being, like, a normal z-score, the MVRV variety gets extra. It compares how much people think the whole network is worth (market value: spot price times supply) with how much cold hard cash has actually gone into the party (realized value). When those numbers go to dramatic extremes—like high schoolers at a dance—it means bitcoin might be ready for a dramatic exit. But right now, they’re basically lurking by the punch bowl, not storming off dramatically.

And if you ever wanted to explain this to your grandma, try: MVRV Z-Score equals (market cap minus realized cap) divided by how bonkers the market cap gets over time (yes, that’s the official Tina Fey math). This isn’t just mood-swingy, it’s measured from the dawn of bitcoin time (which is, let’s face it, anything before Dogecoin was a meme).

Score check: MVRV Z-Score sitting pretty at 2.4. Bear bottoms? That’s when it dips below zero and everyone tweets about the end of the world (2015, 2019, 2022—the years we don’t talk about). Market tops? Seven or higher, like a high-strung contestant on “Chopped” (2017 and 2021, per Glassnode).

It’s just

one

number, but history says bitcoin is still wearing its pajamas and hasn’t left the house for the moon yet. So if you’re waiting for that parabolic “up only” action, you might want to grab a snack.

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2025-07-10 12:45