Bitcoin’s Final Plunge?! 📉

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A Word of Caution (or Not):

  • The so-called ‘STH MVRV’ stands at 0.82, suggesting these short-term speculators are nursing losses. Oh, the humanity! 😭
  • The long-term holders, those patient souls, have amassed around 500,000 BTC since February. Perhaps they know something we don’t… or perhaps they are simply stubborn. 🤔

Ah, Bitcoin, that digital enigma! Its on-chain entrails, much like the tea leaves of a fortune teller, are once again being scrutinized. The STH MVRV ratio, a cryptic measure if ever there was one, has plummeted to 0.82. According to the venerable data oracles at Glassnode, this level is historically associated with market stress and, dare we say it, capitulation! A word that strikes fear into the hearts of even the most seasoned gamblers. 😱

This metric, this STH MVRV, compares the market value (the current price, a fickle mistress) to the realized price (the average cost basis, a more honest reflection of pain). A value below 1.0 indicates that recent buyers, those impetuous souls, are, on average, drowning in unrealized losses. At 0.82, these poor souls are down roughly 18%. A sign, no doubt, that many are considering selling their grandmothers to recoup their losses. 👵💸

This wretched level mirrors previous MVRV cycle lows: 0.84 in August 2024 and 0.77 in November 2022. Both of which, miraculously, preceded market bottoms and trend reversals. Or so they say. One can only hope, or perhaps invest in something less volatile, like postage stamps. ✉️

Historically, these deep MVRV drawdowns have marked periods where the weak hands, those easily swayed by fear and greed, surrender their precious coins. And the smart money, those cunning vultures, swoop in to feast on the carnage. A timeless tale of financial Darwinism. 🦅

According to the aforementioned Glassnode, since February, long-term holders (those who have held their coins for 155 days or more, an eternity in the crypto world) have increased their holdings by approximately 500,000 BTC. Are they wise? Or merely stubborn? Only time, the great arbiter, will tell. ⏳

In stark contrast, short-term holders have distributed over 300,000 BTC. Driven, no doubt, by a cocktail of profit-taking (for the lucky few) and sheer, unadulterated panic (for the vast majority). This imbalance, this tug-of-war between the patient and the frantic, indicates that long-term holders are accumulating more BTC than short-term holders are selling. A comforting thought, perhaps, as you watch your portfolio dwindle. 🤔

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2025-04-16 13:42