Bitcoin’s Daring Dance: Will It Soar or Plummet? 💸

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  • Ah, Bitcoin! It has graced us with its presence at the lofty height of $110K for the third time this cycle, embarking on a delightful jaunt into the realm of price discovery.
  • In a rather civilized manner, the current selling remains moderate, as the Long-Term Holder Supply continues its genteel ascent.

In a most splendid turn of events, Bitcoin [BTC] has gallantly surged to a new all-time high of $110K for the third time in this cycle. How utterly predictable! 🎩

With this price surge, our dear Bitcoin has officially entered the price discovery phase. Historically, such phases are followed by a delightful flurry of sell-offs, as profit-takers seize the opportunity to exit stage left and derisk at these dizzying heights.

Of course, the current on-chain metrics are beginning to reveal this charming little dance.

Older wallets start to move—but cautiously

Data from Checkonchain has unveiled a rather sharp drop in the HODLer Net Position Change metric, which has plummeted to a rather dismal -30.8K BTC. Oh, the drama!

With this metric languishing in negative territory for a sustained period, it suggests that our long-term holders are, indeed, moving their coins. How scandalous! 😏

According to the ever-reliable Glassnode, spending by long-term holders is currently at a three-month high. A veritable feast of spending!

Moreover, the Spent Volume by Age has shown that aggregate BTC sales from the 1–5 year cohort have spiked to a staggering $4.02 billion—marking the highest such outflow since February. Quite the spectacle!

Those who have held Bitcoin for 3–5 years have been the most extravagant, selling BTC worth a jaw-dropping $2.16 billion. This is the second-largest outflow from this cohort this cycle. How generous of them!

The 2–3 year cohort followed suit with $1.41 billion in spent volume, while the 1–2 year holders moved a modest $450 million. Such restraint!

How does it stack up against previous cycles?

Although spending by long-term holders appears relatively high, it remains rather low when we cast our gaze upon previous cycles. A curious phenomenon!

In February 2025, Bitcoin holders for 2 to 3 years sold a staggering $5.42 billion worth of BTC. In October 2024, those who held for 1 to 2 years offloaded a jaw-dropping $9.25 billion. The audacity!

This trend reveals that older wallets tend to sell more as prices rise, as evidenced in November 2024, when the 3 to 5-year cohort sold $4.39 billion worth of BTC during a price rally. How predictable!

Moreover, the Long-Term Holder Supply Net Position Change remains positively buoyant at around 745K BTC. This indicates a net accumulation trend, rather than a mass exodus. How reassuring!

Why this still favors BTC’s upside

Although our older wallets are selling Bitcoin, they are not spending as much. Therefore, the current spending rate, while a tad concerning, suggests that our long-term holders are holding strong. A true testament to their resolve!

Looking at the supply dynamics, it appears that some long-term holders are strategically exiting the market to take a profit. How cunning!

Thus, we can conclude that this is merely the normal market pattern as Bitcoin waltzes into the discovery phase.

Unless selling pressure accelerates with the fervor of a thousand suns, BTC’s bullish trajectory remains intact. If current conditions persist, Bitcoin could very well target $120K in the short term—before more aggressive profit-taking kicks in. How thrilling! 🎉

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2025-05-30 06:21