Bitcoin’s Bad Day: When Crypto Meets Trade War Drama 🎭

By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Cryptocurrency prices are down across the board over the last 24 hours amid a wider risk asset sell-off triggered by deepening U.S.-China trade tensions. Because, you know, nothing says “global stability” like two superpowers slapping tariffs on each other like toddlers fighting over a toy. 🪀

The White House said China now “faces up to a 245% tariff on imports” and imposed new restrictions on chip exports to the country. Bitcoin (BTC) fell more than 2.2% while the broader market, measured by the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index, declined 3.75%. Nasdaq 100 futures are also down, losing more than 1% while S&P 500 futures dropped 0.65%. Meanwhile, gold is up 26.5% year-to-date, because apparently, when the world burns, people still want shiny rocks. 🪙

The largest cryptocurrency slipped below its 200-day simple moving average on March 9, suggesting “the token’s recent steep decline qualifies this as a bear market cycle starting in late March,” Coinbase Institutional said in a note. A risk-adjusted performance measured in standard deviations known as the Z-Score shows the bull cycle ended in late February, with subsequent activity seen as neutral, according to Coinbase Institutional’s global head of research, David Duong. In other words, the crypto party might be over, and the hangover is just beginning. 🥴

Monthly stablecoin transfer volume on @Solana hits a new all-time high.

– Volume: $12 billion+

— SolanaFloor (@SolanaFloor) April 16, 2025

USDC is the dominant stablecoin at 75% of the ecosystem’s total stablecoin market cap, according to DefiLlama data.
Stablecoin supply doubled from $6 billion between early January and April 15, coinciding with a drop in speculative activity (such as memecoin trading) on the blockchain. Because who needs memecoins when you can have stability? 🧐

Derivatives Positioning

Open interest in offshore BTC perpetuals and futures fell as prices retreated from $86K to nearly $83K. The drop shows lack of participation in the price decline. Because nothing says “confidence” like sitting on the sidelines. 🏖️
ETH, XRP and SOL perpetual funding rates remained negative in a sign of bias for short, or bearish, positions. Because who doesn’t love a good bear market? 🐻
The annualized BTC and ETH CME futures basis remains rangebound between 5% and 8%, showcasing caution among institutional players. Because when the going gets tough, the tough get cautious. 🧐
Options tied to BlackRock’s spot bitcoin ETF showed bias for bullish directional exposure to the upside in longer maturity options, but at the same time, priced short-term downside risks more aggressively. Because why not hedge your bets? 🎲
On Deribit, positioning remains defensive, exhibiting a bias for short and near-dated options. Because nothing says “defensive” like shorting the market. 🛡️

Market Movements:

BTC is down 0.26% from 4 p.m. ET Tuesday at $83,823.34 (24hrs: -2.7%)
ETH is down 1.23% at $1,575.79 (24hrs: -3.31%)
CoinDesk 20 is down 1.67% at 2,410.72 (24hrs: -3.75%)
Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 16 bps at 3.02%
BTC funding rate is at 0.0079% (8.6494% annualized) on Binance

DXY is down 0.59% at 99.63
Gold is up 3.31% at $3,325.20/oz
Silver is up 2.58% at $33.06/oz
Nikkei 225 closed -1.01% at 33,920.40
Hang Seng closed -1.91% at 21,056.98
FTSE is down 0.44% at 8,212.76
Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.79% at 4,931.25
DJIA closed on Tuesday -0.38% at 40,368.96
S&P 500 closed -0.17% at 5,396.63
Nasdaq closed unchanged at 16,823.17
S&P/TSX Composite Index closed +0.84% at 24,067.90
S&P 40 Latin America closed unchanged at 2,337.88
U.S. 10-year Treasury rate is unchanged at 4.34%
E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.6% at 5,395.75
E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 1.18% at 18,736.50
E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are up 2% at 40,531.00

Bitcoin Stats:

BTC Dominance: 63.95 (0.17%)
Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.1881 (-1.00%)
Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 890 EH/s
Hashprice (spot): $44.7
Total Fees: 6.33 BTC / $484,137
CME Futures Open Interest: 135,635 BTC
BTC priced in gold: 25.7 oz
BTC vs gold market cap: 7.28%

Technical Analysis

The Ichimoku cloud, a popular momentum indicator, is capping upside as discussed early this week.
A turn lower may embolden bears, potentially yielding a re-test of the psychological support level of $80K. Because nothing says “support” like a psychological breakdown. 🧠

Crypto Equities

Strategy (MSTR): closed on Tuesday at $310.72 (-0.23%), down 1.43% at $306.27 in pre-market
Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $175.57 (-0.57%), down 1.36% at $173.18
Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$15.45 (-2.28%)
MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $12.58 (-2.86%), down 2.38% at $12.28
Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $6.55 (-6.56%), down 1.37% at $6.46
Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $6.85 (-2.97%), down 2.19% at $6.70
CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $7.28 (-6.43%), down 1.65% at $7.16
CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $11.98 (-5.67%)
Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $34.40 (+0.41%), up 2.62% at $35.30
Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $38.01 (-3.6%), up 5.21% at $39.99

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs:

Daily net flow: $76.4 million
Cumulative net flows: $35.5 billion
Total BTC holdings ~ 1.11 million

Spot ETH ETFs

Daily net flow: -$14.2 million
Cumulative net flows: $2.27 billion
Total ETH holdings ~ 3.35 million

Overnight Flows

Chart of the Day

Funding rates in perpetual futures tied to the privacy-focused token monero (XMR) remain deeply negative, indicating a dominance of bearish short positions.
The notable bias for shorts means a potential upswing in prices, as suggested by technical charts, could trigger a short squeeze, leading to bullish volatility boom. Because nothing says “boom” like a short squeeze. 💥

In the Ether

2025-04-16 14:30