Bitcoin’s $40B Hot Potato: Investors Dive In At $95K, Chaos Ensues (Probably)

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Key points:

  • Bitcoin’s most recently-moved supply segment is exploding like a rabid towel at a Vogon poetry night as high prices lure in “speculative capital” (translation: people with too much optimism and too little memory).

  • “Hot supply” has doubled faster than an attempted Zaphod Beeblebrox lasagna recipe—only five weeks from local lows in March (that’s almost science!).

  • Active addresses, meanwhile, are sulking in a corner, refusing to act like it’s a bona fide bull market. Clearly, their invitation was lost in hyperspace.

Short-term Bitcoin holders (otherwise known as the universal constant of FOMO) are once again jumping into the fray, as “speculative capital” comes hurtling into the market with all the grace of a pan-galactic gargle blaster enthusiast at closing time.

On April 29, a bunch of very clever carbon-based lifeforms at Glassnode used an X thread to announce a spike in Bitcoin’s so-called “hot capital”—which, sadly, is not a dance move.

Bitcoin: The Universe’s Favorite Hot Potato 🥔🚀

So here’s the situation: as the price of BTC whirlpools tantalizingly near its all-time cosmic highs, new investors are limbering up and preparing to add “market entry at the least convenient time possible” to their LinkedIn profiles.

Glassnode reveals the sum of Bitcoin moved in the last week is now at its highest since early February. This metric, apparently, is a “proxy for speculative capital” (read: people who read half an article and thought, “What could possibly go wrong?”).

Last week alone, hot capital soared by over 90% to nearly $40 billion, which is only slightly less than a small country’s GDP or the annual towel budget for the Galactic Hitchhiker’s Association. Since the local lows in late March, hot capital went up by $21.5 billion. Yes, that’s several planets’ worth of sandwiches.

Glassnode, brimming with understatement, notes:

“BTC hot capital bottomed at $17.5B on 23 Mar—its lowest level since Dec. In just 5 weeks, it has added over $21.5B, suggesting a rapid shift from dormancy to speculation among newer market entrants.”

Bull Market: Now With 78% More FOMO🦄

As cosmic observers at CryptoMoon never tire of reminding us, STH investors (that’s “Short-Term Holders” for the less acronymically-inclined) are back to making aggregate profits as the price lingers near $95,000—a number so big it makes Arthur Dent want to lie down and try not to panic.

But wait! Before you trade your pet mouse for a hardware wallet, Glassnode puts on its best Marvin-the-paranoid-analyst voice and says: it’s not quite a full-on bull market yet. Basically, there’s more hot air than hot action.

They describe “early FOMO” (First Order of Marginal Optimists) showing up, while the Hot Capital Share ticks up, profitability metrics like Percent Supply in Profit (86%, coincidentally the same as your cousin’s crypto portfolio confidence level) and NUPL (0.53, or “Not Ultimately Profiting, Lol”) are expanding notably.

“However, while on-chain activity such as transfer volume and fees are recovering, daily active addresses remain suppressed, suggesting that full organic network engagement is still rebuilding.”

Earlier this week, other sources (possibly powered by improbability drives) issued reminders of the perils of “FOMO” during a price recovery, for all you thrill-seeking dolphins in the market.

Meanwhile, on April 29, Axel Adler Jr.—a name that sounds suspiciously like someone who’s just discovered the Babel Fish of onchain analytics—brought forth new enlightenment on CryptoQuant. What it is, no one knows, but we can be certain it involves numbers, charts, and at least three existential crises per paragraph.

So, if you’re thinking of joining the party, don’t forget your towel, a large cup of tea, and a healthy skepticism for chart patterns that sound like cocktail recipes. 🌌💸

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2025-04-29 17:52