Bitcoin’s $120K Dream Dies Again: Ethereum’s Party Was a Trap!

by

Bitcoin, that perennially confused investor, decided to take a nap at $117K, while Ethereum went full party animal and hit a new high. What’s the deal? 🤷‍♂️🚀

Fed Watch Tool Shows 75% chance of rate cut after Fed Chair Speech on Friday | Source: CME Group

Powell, ever the master of ambiguity, hinted that rates might drop, leaving everyone wondering if it’s a hint or a red herring. 🧠

Altcoins, meanwhile, were out there living their best lives. ETH, XRP, SOL, and ADA all did the cha-cha, while Bitcoin sulked like a toddler who lost their snack. 🍪

Bitcoin’s underwhelming performance? Let’s blame the “whales” (or lack thereof). Cryptoquant’s Coinbase Premium Index, that trusty barometer of institutional interest, hit a 21-day low. It’s like the big fish took a vacation and left the retail traders to fend for themselves. 🐟

Bitcoin Premium Index falls to 21-day low on August 22 | Source: CryptoQuant

Meanwhile, Bitcoin ETFs were more interested in binge-watching Netflix than investing. $23 million in outflows? That’s not a financial move-it’s a “I’ll just watch the highlights” move. 🍿

Bitcoin ETF Flows August 2025 | Source: Farside Investors

Ethereum ETFs, on the other hand, were out there making bank. It’s like the crypto world’s version of “the popular kids at the party.” 🎉

1. Bitcoin Sees Weak Demand Among Coinbase Whale Traders

Cryptoquant’s Coinbase Premium Index, that trusty barometer of institutional interest, hit a 21-day low. It’s like the big fish took a vacation and left the retail traders to fend for themselves. 🐟

Bitcoin Premium Index falls to 21-day low on August 22 | Source: CryptoQuant

When this metric trends negative or near-zero, it signals that corporate investors are showing little appetite, leaving retail traders to drive market activity. The 21-day low reading on Fridays suggested that while retail participation was strong, whale buyers in the U.S. remained hesitant.

This cautious stance among institutions has weighed heavily on Bitcoin’s ability to push higher against its layer-1 rivals.

2. Bitcoin ETFs Failed to Register a Single Day of Inflow this Week

ETF flows this week further emphasized investor preferences, sidelining Bitcoin. According to Farside Investors, Bitcoin funds recorded $23 million in outflows on Friday.

This meant that the Bitcoin ETF failed to register a single day of net inflows this week, shedding $1.2 billion as withdrawals exceeded deposits in six consecutive trading days dating back to Aug. 15.

Bitcoin ETF Flows August 2025 | Source: Farside Investors

In contrast, Ethereum ETFs pulled in $337 million in net inflows on Friday after taking in $287 million on Thursday.

This divergence highlights how investor capital rotated toward Ethereum and other altcoins following Powell’s remarks, leaving Bitcoin sidelined in the rally. Without ETF inflows to support upward pressure, BTC’s upside trajectory was inevitably capped.

3. BTC Bulls Face $3B Resistance Cluster at $117,800

Derivative market data adds further insights into Bitcoin’s laggard price action below $120,000 on Friday. Coinglass liquidation maps show the distribution of leveraged positions across key price levels. At first glance, sentiment leans bullish, with total long leverage of $6.86 billion narrowly exceeding shorts at $6.64 billion.

Bitcoin Liquidation Map as of August 23, 2025 | Source: Coinglass

However, a deeper look reveals over $3 billion worth of shorts clustered at $117,800, nearly 50% of all active downside bets. Such concentrated short leverage incentivizes strategic sell-offs, as traders attempt to prevent a breakout beyond that key price level. Bitcoin’s rejection from the intraday high of $117,377 aligns closely with this resistance wall.

Bitcoin Price Forecast

Given the $117,800 resistance cluster, Bitcoin is unlikely to sustain a clean break above $120,000 without fresh inflows. Unless bullish liquidity overwhelms short incentives, near-term price action may consolidate between $113,500 support and $118,000 resistance.

A decisive close above $118,000 could trigger a short squeeze, setting the stage for a push toward $123,000. Conversely, failure to defend $113,500 may open a retracement path back toward $110,000.

Read More

2025-08-23 22:58