Bitcoin’s 10 AM Waltz: A Tale of Market Makers and Crypto Whispers

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In the vast and tumultuous sea of the cryptocurrency market, where fortunes rise and fall with the capricious winds of speculation, a new tempest has arisen. The whispers, carried on the digital breezes of Crypto X, speak of Jane Street, a name now entwined in the latest saga of alleged market manipulation. With the acquisition of 7,105,206 shares of BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF, IBIT, in the final quarter of 2025, Jane Street’s holdings swelled to a formidable 20,315,780 shares. Yet, it is not this accumulation that has tongues wagging, but rather the persistent rumor of a daily ritual-a “10 AM” sell program-that has ignited the fires of conjecture.

The Allegation: A Sophisticated Dance or Mere Coincidence?

The accusation, though simple, is as sticky as the summer heat in Moscow. It is said that the very desk at Jane Street, which so diligently “accumulates” IBIT shares, is also the orchestrator of a daily ballet, a deliberate press upon the price of Bitcoin and its linked vehicles at the stroke of 10 AM. The purpose? To craft a more favorable entry point, a cunning strategy that, if true, would be the envy of even the most astute traders. Yet, the rebuttal from those steeped in the intricacies of market structure is equally blunt: one must not mistake the inventory of a market maker for a directional bet. It is a mistake as grave as confusing a soldier’s uniform for his true intentions.

BullTheory, ever eager to frame the narrative, proclaimed that Jane Street’s purchase of 7,105,206 IBIT shares, valued at $276 million, in Q4 2025, brought their total holdings to a staggering 20,315,780 shares, worth $790 million. They did not hesitate to add, with a flourish of dramatic irony, that this very entity is rumored to be the puppeteer behind the daily “10 AM” manipulation, a maneuver designed to push Bitcoin prices lower. A screenshot, circulating like a samizdat pamphlet, shows Jane Street Group LLC with a 13F source tag, an options indicator marked “Y,” and the positions in question. It is this “Y” that critics seize upon, for it hints at a complexity that belies the simplistic narrative.

BREAKING: Jane Street bought 7,105,206 $IBIT shares worth $276 million in Q4 2025.

It now holds 20,315,780 IBIT shares worth $790 million.

This is the same entity rumoured to be behind the daily “10 AM” manipulation to push Bitcoin prices lower.

– Bull Theory (@BullTheoryio) February 17, 2026

Milk Road, ever the amplifier of “persistent whispers,” chimed in with their own interpretation of this alleged routine. Around 10 AM ET, as the U.S. stock market awakens, large sell volumes strike BTC and its related ETF shares. This, they claim, creates a panic, triggering liquidations of leveraged longs and exploiting the thin liquidity pockets. Then, in a move as predictable as the changing of the guard at the Kremlin, the same firms allegedly buy back at lower prices. A pattern, they note, that emerged prominently in early November 2025 and has persisted into the early days of 2026. Yet, they are quick to add, these are but unverified rumors, circulating like gossip in a small village.

Not all are convinced by this internal logic. CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost posed a question that cuts to the heart of the matter: “When, in this rumor, is Jane Street supposed to have bought large amounts of BTC so as not to be selling at a loss right now?” Milk Road’s response, though vague, suggests an accumulation in the lead-up, followed by a sell-off to drive prices down, and a subsequent buy-in at a lower price. “Totally unverified,” they reiterate, a disclaimer as necessary as a coat in a Russian winter.

Market Makers: Inventory Is Not a Thesis

The strongest counterargument, however, comes not from speculation but from the mechanics of the market itself. Louis LaValle, CEO and co-founder of Frontier Investments, dismissed the viral framing as a misreading of what a 13F filing truly shows. “This isn’t correct,” he declared with the authority of a general addressing his troops. “You’re misinterpreting the 13F. Jane Street is a lead market maker and Authorized Participant for IBI. They aren’t ‘holding’ as a bet. The ‘Y’ in the options column confirms this is a delta-hedged position.” The increase in Q4, he added, could be operational rather than directional, a necessary adjustment to manage volatility and creation/redemption demand. “It has nothing to do with conviction or some mysterious price manipulation,” he concluded, his tone as final as the closing of a heavy door.

Former hedge fund manager Michael Green echoed this sentiment, calling the discourse “painful” and pointing to what is not visible in the filing. “Jane Street may be taking a position in IBIT, but that position is almost entirely offset by undisclosed options and futures positions. They are certainly not ‘accumulating’ a position in Bitcoin. That’s how market making works,” he explained, his words as clear as a winter’s morning.

Others were less diplomatic. Former prop trader Ryan Scott warned, with a sharpness that brooked no argument, “Anyone posting this as bullish is committing a capital offense. This should be ‘You’ll never guess who also has offsetting derivative positioning that does not need to be reported.’ Jane Street is not longing Bitcoin.” Nik Bhatia distilled it to its essence: “Jane Street owns IBIT so that it can write options, arbitrage, and everything else a quantitative trading shop does to make fast money.” A truth as undeniable as the passage of time.

In the end, the market-maker explanation appears more consistent with the realities of how these positions are managed, while the “10 AM slam” narrative remains, at this stage, just that-a theory circulating on Crypto X, as unverified as the rumors of a man’s intentions. At press time, BTC traded at $68,107, a number as fleeting as the shadows on a summer’s day.

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2026-02-18 15:04