Bitcoin, XRP Open Interest Soars as Bull Market Faces Pullback

<a href="https://minority-mindset.com/btc-usd/">Bitcoin</a>, <a href="https://usdaed.com/xrp-usd/">XRP</a> Open Interest Nears Record High as Bull Market Pullback Unfolds

What to know:

BTC down but not out.
XRP futures open interest hits record high.
ETH remains directionless in an expanding triangle.
SOL finds new resistance at $168, carves out double top.

Bitcoin: Bull Market Pullback Underway

The bitcoin

market rally has stalled in the past 24 hours as expected, but instead of consolidation, prices have pulled back over 5% to $116,800 from record highs in a move typical of a bull market pullback. Reports suggest that profit-taking by long-term holders is weighing on the cryptocurrency’s price.

As an analyst, I often observe that markets tend to retrace steps and revisit significant high points, like the one we reached on May 22 around $111,960. This is a chance for the market to evaluate the strength of underlying buying interest before embarking on further upward momentum. Earlier this year, we saw a similar pattern unfold as prices dipped from over $100,000 down to approximately $75,000, only to return and retest the breakout point established at the end of 2024.

Looking at the technical analysis, an overall optimistic outlook is expected as long as prices continue within the upward-sloping channel in the daily chart. In the coming 24 hours, attention shifts towards the hourly chart, which indicates a strong downward correction, with prices currently trading below the Ichimoku cloud, suggesting a bearish trend.

Although the RSI on the hourly chart has dipped below 30, suggesting an oversold situation – quite different from the overbought reading (above 70) witnessed yesterday. Thus, it’s possible that a rebound might occur. If the potential recovery breaks the downward trending channel, the likelihood of a return to $111,960 will diminish, potentially leading to new high records.

The level of fluctuation might stay elevated since the combined open interest in onshore and offshore futures, as well as offshore perpetual futures, has risen to approximately 734,820 Bitcoin. This figure is nearly equal to the previous record of 744,000 Bitcoin from October 2022, according to data provider CoinGecko.

It seems that the increase in open contracts is mainly driven by foreign exchanges, as the number of active agreements on the CME remains below its May peak, and the three-month annualized basis is still under 10%. Meanwhile, funding rates on offshore perpetual contracts have surpassed 11%, suggesting a rising interest in bullish positions.

AI’s take: Bitcoin’s 5% pullback is a healthy bull market feature, aiming to retest the key breakout level of $111,960 before potentially initiating a stronger rally.
Resistance: $118,000-118,500, $120,000, $123,181
Support: $113,688 (the 38.2% Fib retracement of the rally from June 22 lows), $111,965, $107,823 (the 61.8% Fib)

XRP: Holds 100-hour MA and cloud support

XRP

has dropped from $3 and appears to be trapped in a downward-trending channel on the hourly chart, mirroring BTC. Still, XRP appears relatively better off, holding the confluence of the 100-hour simple moving average (SMA) and the Ichimoku cloud at $2.81.

Escaping this current phase suggests wrapping up the downward adjustment and a return to the overall upward trajectory towards the annual high of $3.4. As we move upward, the bulls may encounter challenges once more approximately at $3.

This way, the explanation remains clear and easy to understand for readers who are not familiar with financial market terms.

As a crypto investor, I’m keeping a close eye on the potential dip below the Ichimoku cloud. Such a move could lend credence to the immediate bearish outlook, causing me to pay particular attention to the 200-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2.6 as a key level of support or resistance in the market.

It’s worth noting that the heightened volatility might stem from the fact that the open interest in perpetual futures of XRP has reached an unprecedented level of 2.74 billion, as reported by Coinglass. The annualized funding rates for XRP are currently at 15%, suggesting a rising preference for leveraged long positions.

AI’s take: Despite XRP’s hourly chart showing a BTC-mirroring downtrend from $3, its strong hold above the 100-hour SMA and Ichimoku cloud at $2.81 signals underlying support. Record perpetual futures open interest and high funding rates indicate significant leveraged bullish demand, making a breakout above $3, towards $3.4, likely if current support holds.
Resistance: $3, $3.4
Support: $2.81, $2.6-$2.65, $2.38

ETH: Awaiting breakout

Ether (ETH) is currently in an expanding triangle, suggesting it may be running out of upward momentum. The daily stochastic indicates the price is overbought, suggesting this upward push could weaken and lead to a short-term consolidation near resistance levels. On the bright side, the daily chart shows that ETH is above the Ichimoku cloud and short-term Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) are pointing upwards, indicating a bullish trend. If Ether does break out, traders’ attention will shift towards $3,400, a level that options traders have marked as a potential target.

AI’s take: The daily stochastic being overbought indicates that momentum is stretched, making a convincing push above the upper trendline unlikely in the short term.
Resistance: $3,067 (the 61.8% Fib retracement), $3,500, $3,570, $4,000.
Support: $2,905, $2,880, $2,739, $2,600

SOL: $168 is the new resistance level

As an analyst, I’ve noticed that despite the double breakout on SOL’s daily chart, its upside potential remains unrealized. Over the past few trading days, including Friday, the bullish momentum has struggled at least twice to surpass resistance around the $168 level. This is evident in the extended upper wicks on the candles for Monday and Friday, suggesting strong bearish pressure at this price point. Therefore, a decisive break above $168 is crucial to validate the bullish outlook.

Keep an eye on the $157 level, which serves as the neckline support for the double top pattern observed in the hourly chart. If this support is breached, it could signal a possible further drop to around $146, according to the measured move method.

AI’s take: Traders should watch for a definitive break above $168 to confirm bullish continuation; otherwise, a loss of the $157 neckline support could trigger a deeper decline towards $146.
Resistance: $168, $180-$190, $200.
Support: $157, $145, $125.

2025-07-15 13:09