Bitcoin to $138K? 🤔 Odds Are… Not So Fast! 😅

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Right then, about this Bitcoin (BTC), what? Seems it’s clinging to a $138,000 price target for 2025, like a particularly persistent houseguest, despite the market doing its best to recover from the unpleasantness of these American trade tariffs. One shudders to think.

Data, bless its cotton socks, covering bets on the prediction service Polymarket suggests that BTC/USD *might* still waltz a merry jig of around 60% from current levels this year. One raises an eyebrow, naturally.

“Conservative” Polymarket Users and Their Peculiar Cap on BTC Price Upside (A Mere 60%, Can You Imagine?)

Bitcoin bull market projections, those jolly hopeful chaps, have taken a bit of a beating this quarter, owing to various setbacks impacting crypto and the wider risk-asset spectrum. Ghastly business, all told.

Now, an assessment of all potential BTC price outcomes on Polymarket concludes that the bull market cycle may be capped at around 60% before 2026. One almost feels sorry for the poor thing, doesn’t one? Almost.

The results were, apparently, uploaded to X (formerly known as Twitter, if memory serves) by a chap named Ashwin on March 27. They show that price bets extend all the way down to $59,000. Good heavens!

“The great thing about this analysis,” Ashwin (or was it Ashworth?) explained, “is that it not only provides a market sentiment score, like the Fear and Greed Index, but also attaches to it the expected price target for both bearish and bullish scenarios.” Quite the mouthful, what?

“This offers a reference to compare one’s price prediction with the market’s.”

Ashwin, bless him, deconstructed the methodology used to analyze odds across multiple Polymarket arenas, resulting in a potential BTC price range between $59,040 and $138,617. A range so wide, one could drive a rather large omnibus through it, I daresay. 🚌

“The $138k Bitcoin price target may not seem bullish to most Bitcoiners, who are accustomed to hearing hyperbolic valuations. However, the market remains conservative as it recovers from the Trump tariff uncertainty,” he continued. One gets the feeling he’s trying to let us down gently. 🤔

The modest expectations for BTC/USD mimic those elsewhere. On fellow prediction site Kalshi, one average BTC price target stands at $122,000 — just $11,500 beyond current all-time highs. Exciting, if you’re easily excited, I suppose. 🥱

Bitcoin Support Failure Remains a Risk (Oh, the Drama!)

As CryptoMoon continues to report (one hadn’t realised they *did* continue, frankly), market participants have drawn lines in the sand that price action should not violate in order to protect the broader bull market. One hopes they have sturdy sandcastles. 🏖️

These include the area around old all-time highs at $73,800 and the 2021 peak at $69,000. Rather precise lines, if you ask me. 📏

Earlier this month, a historically accurate forecasting tool, which its creator describes as showing where Bitcoin “won’t be” in the future, gave a 95% chance of $69,000 holding. So, practically a certainty, then. Except, of course, when it isn’t. 🤷

In his latest update, popular trader Aksel Kibar stressed that the yearly average of $76,000 must stay in place. Or what, one wonders?

“Extremely important for the price not to breach the year-long average,” he told X followers on March 26. One trusts his followers took note. Preferably in triplicate. 📝

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2025-03-27 11:25