Bitcoin Surges to $120K: What’s Next? 🚀

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Key takeaways:

  • Bitcoin, that sly fox, leapt over the $120,000 threshold as long-term holders (LTHs) finally paused their selling spree. 🐆💸

  • Short-term holders, those beleaguered souls, are now absorbing losses like a sponge in a crypto tsunami. 🌊

  • Neutral LTH flows, ever the enigma, may be laying the groundwork for a breakout that’s as elusive as a unicorn in a desert. 🦄

Bitcoin (BTC) soared above $120,000 for the first time since Aug. 13, as onchain data whispered secrets of an accumulation phase. The long-term holders, those stoic guardians of Bitcoin, have eased their selling pressure, as if sighing in relief. 🌟

According to Glassnode, the Short-Term Holder Realized Value (RVT) ratio has been steadily compressing since May, like a coiled spring waiting to snap. Historically, elevated RVT levels have coincided with overheated markets, while contractions toward the “full market detox” zone indicated that short-term traders are capturing fewer profits relative to overall network activity. If sustained, this trend could lay the groundwork for renewed accumulation as investors position for clearer market direction. 🌀

On the supply side, the balance between long-term holders and institutional inflows remained critical. After months of consistent distribution, data show that the Long-Term Holders Net Position Change (3D) metric has now shifted toward neutral territory. 🧘‍♂️

This suggested that the heavy bout of profit-taking that capped recent rallies may be tapering off, potentially leaving exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and new inflows as the dominant drivers of near-term momentum. 📈

If this cooling supply dynamic holds, Bitcoin could be forming a structural base in the $115,000 to $120,000 zone, similar to the consolidation phase observed in March and April, when neutralized LTH flows preceded a sharp upward continuation. 🌋

With LTH distribution waning and short-term excess unwinding, analysis suggested the market may be preparing for a decisive breakout attempt, with $120,000 emerging as the key threshold to watch. 🎯

Short-term holder losses show signs of absorption

While long-term supply dynamics appear to be cooling, short-term investor behavior also flashed important signals. According to CryptoQuant, short-term holders (STHs) have recently undergone a period of stress, with the STH-SOPR dipping as low as 0.992 through September. This marked a phase where speculative wallets consistently realized losses, often a sign of weak hands exiting the market. 🧠

However, last week, the metric rebounded slightly to 0.995, still below August’s 0.998, but signaling early stabilization. 🌱

Historically, such resets tend to play out in two ways: extended loss realization that drives corrective phases, or a “healthy reset” where selling pressure is quickly absorbed. With BTC comfortably consolidating above $115,000, the recovery in STH-SOPR could be a potential marker of market resilience ahead of a new bullish leg. 🦁

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2025-10-02 20:48