Bitcoin, Quantum Computing, and My Aunt Mildred

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The other day, my Aunt Mildred called. She’d read something about Bitcoin and quantum computers, and was convinced her small investment was about to vanish into the ether. Mildred doesn’t understand ATMs, so this was… concerning. It reminded me of the market panics I’ve seen over the years. Usually, it’s some algorithm gone haywire, or a particularly persuasive talking head on television. This time, though, it was the specter of a future technology – quantum computing – supposedly poised to crack the very foundation of cryptocurrency. It’s a good story, really. A bit dramatic, but then, what isn’t these days?

The sell-off on February 5th was… spirited. Almost theatrical. And the rumor – that a quantum computer was about to unlock all the Bitcoin wallets – spread faster than Mildred can gossip about the neighbors. I saw it online, of course. A flurry of panicked posts, people claiming to have inside information, and a general sense of impending doom. It was enough to make me check my own holdings, which, admittedly, I hadn’t looked at since… well, let’s just say it’s been a while. I’m a long-term investor, see. I prefer to ignore the daily fluctuations. It’s better for my blood pressure.

The price dropped nearly 17% between the 4th and the 6th, and everyone was scrambling for an explanation. Turns out, it was mostly just the usual suspects: leveraged positions unwinding, ETFs shedding some weight, the predictable dance of the market. But the quantum computing story? That had a certain…stickiness. A $9 billion sale was attributed to the quantum fear, and the narrative took off. Benign, they said. Unrelated. But try telling that to someone who’s already convinced the sky is falling.

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I thought about the last time I tried to explain blockchain to my Uncle George. He just stared at me, then asked if it had anything to do with bicycles. Trying to reason with people during a panic is like trying to herd cats. They’ve already made up their minds, and logic is rarely welcome. I’ve learned to just nod politely and change the subject. But the quantum threat, it’s not entirely irrational. It’s a genuine, long-term risk, lurking somewhere down the road.

The quantum computers that exist today are monstrous, expensive things, requiring entire buildings to house them. They’re not exactly something you can buy on Amazon. Mostly they’re kept in government labs and university basements, being used for things like… well, I’m not entirely sure what they’re used for. But they’re not cracking Bitcoin wallets just yet. Not even close. Still, the possibility is there. Eventually, a powerful enough quantum computer could render current encryption methods obsolete. And that’s a problem.

The real issue isn’t whether it will happen, but whether the Bitcoin community can adapt. They’re a famously fractious bunch, those developers. Lots of strong opinions, very little consensus. Getting them to agree on anything, let alone a major upgrade to the core protocol, is like negotiating peace between warring nations. But they’ll figure it out. Eventually. I have a feeling. They’re stubborn, if nothing else.

A Long-Term Perspective

So, what does all this mean for a long-term investor? It means you need to factor in this “tail risk” – the possibility of a low-probability, high-impact event – into your calculations. Don’t let fear dictate your decisions, but don’t be naive either. And for goodness sake, don’t sell your coins just because some panicked stranger on the internet tells you to. Especially if that stranger is your Aunt Mildred.

I’m still betting on Bitcoin. Not because I understand the technology – I really don’t – but because I believe in the underlying principles of decentralization and scarcity. And because, frankly, I’m too stubborn to admit I was wrong. Plus, I have a feeling that even if the quantum computers do come for Bitcoin, someone will figure out a way to fix it. They always do. Or, at least, they usually do. And that’s good enough for me.

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2026-02-12 12:02