Bitcoin: Not at Peak Yet, Analysts Say 🚀💰

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Key takeaways:

  • Bitcoin soared to an all-time high of $122,000 on July 14, yet onchain data reveals no signs of overheating, hinting at further growth in 2025. 📈

  • The $124,000-$136,000 range remains the primary resistance for Bitcoin. 🛡️

Amidst the bustling world of cryptocurrencies, where fortunes are made and lost in the blink of an eye, Bitcoin (BTC) analysts have declared that the market is far from overheated, despite the recent all-time highs of around $123,000. 🎉

Data from the wise sages of CryptoMoon Markets Pro and the ever-watchful eyes of TradingView reveal that Bitcoin’s price action has carved out a new range in the lower timeframes, with market observers keenly eyeing key support levels. 🕵️‍♂️

Bitcoin Market Not Overheated Yet

For CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr., the grand narrative of Bitcoin has not yet reached its climax. 📝

The analyst shared a chart that, much like a prophet’s scroll, foretells the absence of a peak signal—a harbinger that typically appears at major market tops. 📈

The Bitcoin peak signal, a metric that indicates the market is overheated and a corrective phase is imminent, appears when “the combined normalized market to realized price index and 30 day/ 365 day value days destroyed ratio score reaches or exceeds 1,” Adler Jr. elucidated, adding:

“The Peak Signal only appears at major market tops, and it hasn’t shown up this time, suggesting we’re not at a peak yet.”

Similarly, the Bitcoin realized Cap-UTXO Age Bands, a metric that reveals the distribution of realized cap by age cohort, suggests that BTC “hasn’t reached an overheated state,” according to CryptoQuant’s Crypto Dan. 📊

In the annals of March 2024 and December 2024, when Bitcoin was at its peak highs, the percentage of the realized cap held by the 1-day to 1-week UTXO age group was as high as 14%. Today, despite Bitcoin’s recent all-time highs, this percentage hovers around 5%. 📉

In a Wednesday analysis, Crypto Dan wrote:

“Despite the price rising even higher, the fact that overheating has significantly decreased compared to previous short-term peaks suggests that Bitcoin could continue to break all-time highs and rise significantly in the second half of 2025, leaving strong potential for growth.”

CryptoMoon also reported that Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score remains well below historical peak levels, signaling that BTC price can climb further. 🚀

Onchain Data Reveals Key Bitcoin Price Levels to Watch

Turning to the short-term holder (STH) cost basis, CryptoQuant analyst Crazzyblockk has outlined key levels that traders should focus on, much like a map for a treasure hunt. 🗺️

This observation is derived from Bitcoin’s realized price model, which uses the average purchase prices of STHs, including their standard deviations, to identify crucial areas where buyers are active and prices tend to move. 📊

On the upside, the first major resistance sits at $124,000, representing the average cost basis of STHs pushed one standard deviation higher. “Historically, this band often coincides with profit-taking and local tops,” Crazzyblockk explained. 📈

The upper resistance is at $136,000; the average cost basis of investors who have held BTC for less than 30 days is pushed one standard deviation higher. This is “the most aggressive cohort,” the analyst said, adding:

“When BTC pushes into this area, the market is typically in overbought conditions with excessive unrealized profit for new buyers.”

On the downside, traders should keep an eye on $113,000 — matching the 0.5 standard deviation above the STH realized price; $111,000 — the average cost basis of investors who acquired BTC in the past month; and $101,000, the baseline STH realized price. 📉

$101,000 is the “most critical support for Bitcoin’s medium-term bullish structure,” the analyst said. “Historically, staying above this zone signals strongholder conviction and trend continuation.” 🛡️

“Historically, staying above this zone signals strongholder conviction and trend continuation.”

The market value realized value (MVRV) metric, which reveals whether the asset is overvalued or undervalued, suggests that BTC price still has more room for further expansion before the extreme level around $124,000, marking a key point of resistance. 📈

On the downside, a key area of interest sits between $113,700 and $115,300, a zone aligned with the 200-day EMA, which offers dynamic support. The next important level below that is $107,500, the +0.5 STD MVRV band. 📉

As CryptoMoon reported, Bitcoin must reclaim the $119,250–$120,700 zone to resume its bullish momentum and aim for new highs above $123,000. 🚀

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2025-07-16 17:23