Bitcoin: Is Your Wallet Crying Yet? 😭

by

Right. Bitcoin [BTC]. Apparently, it’s having a bit of a moment. A ‘moment’ consisting of people rushing for the exits, as it were. Joao Wedson, who runs a place called Alphractal (sounds suspiciously like a fractal for alphabets, doesn’t it?), has noticed a distinctly high level of selling. The sort of selling that makes even seasoned market watchers reach for the smelling salts 🙄.

He’s observed a rather alarming drop in the buy/sell pressure delta. Which, put simply, means far more people are shouting “SELL!” than “BUY!”. Which, shockingly, is what happens when people want to sell. It’s all very scientific, you know. Apparently, market orders are the ones actually doing anything, not those passive-aggressive limit orders just sitting there silently judging everyone.

Now, Mr. Wedson, bless his optimistic soul, thinks this won’t last. Three years’ worth of selling is quite a performance, even for Bitcoin, and eventually everyone who wanted to sell probably has. He suggests it might be a ‘bottom’. A ‘bottom’ being that point where things stop going down… for a bit. Consolidation, he calls it. Sounding terribly sensible, as if someone hitting ‘panic sell’ is a carefully considered exercise in market strategy.

Assessing the Bitcoin market regime

Here’s a curious thing. Despite everyone seemingly wanting to offload their digital gold, people are… holding onto it. Apparently, the ‘holder retention rate’ is going up. This metric (yes, everything needs a metric these days) measures whether people are actually keeping their Bitcoin for a full 30 days. Which, in the fast-paced world of crypto, is practically a lifetime commitment. 🤔

They’re determining, through some wonderfully complex calculation involving addresses and balances, if people are holding or rushing for the door. It suggests some people have a long-term view and still believe in the “number go up” philosophy, despite the current…enthusiasm for selling. Though, frankly, believing in something while it’s plummeting could be seen as either faith or sheer stubbornness.

However! Don’t pop the champagne just yet. Someone called Axel Adler Jr. (presumably a junior to a more important Axel Adler) warns that the ‘buy/sell index’ is still waving a rather large red flag. Apparently, things are still ‘risky’ for buyers. The 7-Day and 30-Day values are ‘overheating’, whatever that means. Probably involving a lot of frantic keyboard clicking and panicked sweat. The 1-day value, after a slight dip, is a mere 43. Still, enough to make one feel uneasy.

The general consensus is… if Bitcoin goes up, sell it. Quickly. Rallies are ‘unsustainable’ and will likely lead to everyone unloading their holdings again. It’s a bit like trying to build a sandcastle during a hurricane, really. A good warning, really – catch the bounce and make some profit before everything goes south again. 🤷

Final Thoughts

  • So, the selling is epic, but possibly temporary. Prepare for a bit of a standstill after the chaos. Though ‘standstill’ is a relative term when billions of imaginary shillings are at stake.
  • If Bitcoin suddenly tries to be cheerful, don’t fall for it. Sell. Just… sell. Treat it like a particularly unreliable friend offering you ‘just one more’ investment opportunity.

Read More

2025-12-23 10:25