Right. So, Bitcoin. It’s been a week. A week of charts, of doom-scrolling through crypto Twitter, and of desperately trying to convince myself that my initial investment wasn’t… ill-advised. The prediction markets, those wonderfully optimistic souls, are giving it a 5% chance of hitting $150,000 by June. Five percent. Honestly, that feels… generous. It’s down over 40% from its peak a few months ago. A peak, I might add, that felt suspiciously like a fever dream at the time.
Units of Cryptocurrency Lost (so far): 12. Hours Spent Watching Charts: 9. Number of Panicked Texts to Friends: 24. I keep telling myself there’s still time. That it could bounce back. That I’m not destined to become a cautionary tale whispered in dimly lit investment forums. But the numbers… they’re not encouraging.
What the Options Traders Think (and Do)
Apparently, the Wall Street types are a bit more bullish. Or at least, they’re placing bets as if they are. They’re buying up call options expiring in March, with strike prices around $80,000 and $90,000. It’s like they’re expecting a surge. A surge! It’s all very… assertive. I, meanwhile, am mostly bracing for impact.
If it does get to $90,000 in the next few weeks, well, then everything changes. The narrative shifts, the optimists return, and I can finally stop explaining to my mother why I invested in “digital magic beans.” It’s a big ‘if’, though. A very big ‘if’.
A Glimpse into Bitcoin’s Past (and a Hopeful Thought)
Historically, Bitcoin tends to do okay in the second quarter. An average gain of 27%, apparently. Last year it managed 30%, even after a disastrous start to the year. Which, if you think about it, is… mildly reassuring. Although, past performance is never a guarantee, is it? That’s what they say. It’s just… easier to tell myself that when things are going well.
Looking at the monthly data, there’s a glimmer of hope. Gains in March, April, and May. Small gains, admittedly. But gains nonetheless. If it follows its usual trajectory, $90,000 isn’t entirely out of the question. Which, let’s be honest, is the best I can hope for right now.
Should You Bet Against Bitcoin? (A Confession)
I’m trying to be optimistic. I really am. But realistically, $150,000 by mid-year feels… ambitious. $100,000 might even be a stretch. I’m starting to suspect that my initial investment was less “visionary” and more “momentary lapse of reason.”
If you are thinking of buying, adopt a long-term strategy. A very long-term strategy. Like, “pass it down to my grandchildren” long-term. Because let’s face it, Bitcoin is a volatile beast. And I, for one, am starting to feel very, very small in its presence.
Will become disciplined long-term investor: Attempted. Success rate: Questionable. Number of times checked Bitcoin price today: 27. I need a holiday.
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2026-03-09 05:02