Bitcoin: A Dip, Not a Disaster?

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Right then. Bitcoin. It’s been having a bit of a wobble, hasn’t it? A distinctly undignified stumble, actually. Since October – a month historically noted for both pumpkins and panics – it’s been looking a bit peaky. Down over 30% in the last three months, it’s erased gains made during the… well, let’s call it the ‘Trumpian Optimism’ of 2024. A time when the market, in a fit of collective fancy, decided that digital scarcity and political upheaval were a match made in heaven.1

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This year, though, the air is thick with uncertainty. Regulations loom like particularly grumpy tax collectors, the long-term narrative is…let’s say ‘evolving’, and the broader economic outlook resembles a particularly complicated knot. Which, for those of us who observe these things, presents a rather interesting opportunity. A chance to perhaps, cautiously, poke the beast with a long stick. Or, if you prefer, acquire a few digital tokens at a slightly less alarming price.

Here are a few scenarios to consider. Because, let’s be honest, markets are rarely simple. They’re more like trying to herd cats wearing tiny, reflective vests.

1. Buy Bitcoin if You Believe the Institutional Magicians Will Continue Their Tricks

The last surge in Bitcoin’s price wasn’t driven by individual enthusiasts, bless their optimistic hearts. It was the institutions – the big players, the Guild of Alchemists and Venture Capitalists, if you will2 – who started piling in. The approval of those ‘spot Bitcoin ETFs’ in 2024 meant that funds – vast, impersonal entities – could finally hold Bitcoin without quite having a nervous breakdown. And even if governments don’t start passing even more regulations (a distinct possibility, given their penchant for changing their minds), the legislative shifts already underway are making cryptocurrency a little more palatable to the suits.

Morgan Stanley, for instance, has decided its advisors can offer crypto to all clients, not just the ones who look like they understand what a blockchain is. And there’s talk – just talk, mind you – of Bitcoin creeping into retirement accounts. A White House executive order and murmurings from the SEC suggest that even they are starting to see the potential. Though, naturally, they’ll want a cut first.

2. Buy Bitcoin if You’re an Optimist (and Have a Strong Stomach)

Sentiment, dear reader, is everything in the cryptocurrency world. When gloom descends, it feels like nothing will ever lift prices. We saw this during the last ‘crypto winter,’ as Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan pointed out on social media. It’s a bit like trying to push a boulder uphill during a thunderstorm. Despite all the regulatory progress and increased adoption, Bitcoin might well fall further in the short term. Markets, after all, have a peculiar fondness for disappointing people.

But zoom out a bit. Bitcoin has a habit of recovering from even the most severe dips and then, rather annoyingly, setting new highs. This time could be different, of course. The universe is full of surprises. But Bitcoin’s long-term credentials have never been stronger. It could play a role as a currency in emerging markets, a secure vault for on-chain transactions, or even a component of corporate and government treasuries. Ark Invest, with its characteristic enthusiasm, believes it could reach between $300,000 and $1.5 million by 2030.3 A rather ambitious prediction, but then again, they do deal in possibilities.

3. Don’t Buy Bitcoin if You’re Looking for Digital Gold

Bitcoin has several potential use cases, as we’ve discussed. But the ‘digital gold’ argument doesn’t quite hold water. Yes, it has a finite supply and a non-sovereign, decentralized nature. And it’s certainly easier to transport than a bullion shipment.4

Unfortunately, it’s also considerably more volatile than gold. And recently, its price has had more in common with tech stocks. Time and again, it hasn’t proven itself as a safe-haven asset. If we see increased geopolitical tensions, heightened inflation, or a falling dollar, there are no guarantees people will turn to Bitcoin for safety. They might just as easily panic and buy…well, anything else.

There’s always a risk you’re catching a falling knife when you buy any asset during a crash. But if you see the long-term potential, now may be a good time to buy Bitcoin. Just make sure it only accounts for a small portion of your portfolio. Diversification, after all, is the sensible option. Unless, of course, you enjoy the thrill of potentially losing everything. Which, let’s be honest, some people do.


1 A period marked by excessive optimism and a general disregard for fundamental analysis.
2 An organization dedicated to turning digital scarcity into real-world profits. Their methods are often…opaque.
3 A prediction based on complex algorithms and a healthy dose of wishful thinking.
4 Though smuggling it through customs can still be a challenge.

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2026-02-07 14:02