BellRing Brands: A Protein Shake & A Sigh

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So, BellRing Brands. I keep picturing little bells, of course, and a very earnest wellness influencer. The stock (BRBR 17.14%) took a proper tumble today – down 17%, which, let’s be honest, is the kind of drop that makes you check if you accidentally sold your grandmother’s antique thimble collection on the dark web. Turns out, it was just the first-quarter earnings report. And the CEO retiring. A double whammy, really. Like finding out your dry cleaner also offers taxidermy services.

They exceeded Wall Street’s expectations, which, frankly, sets a pretty low bar these days. It’s like winning a participation trophy for showing up to the stock market. Sales were up a measly 1%, while adjusted EBITDA—a phrase I still stumble over, even after years of pretending to understand it—dropped from $125 million to $90 million. My aunt Mildred makes more than that selling hand-knitted cat sweaters on Etsy, and she’s mostly selling to cats.

Looking ahead, management is predicting about 5% growth in 2026. Five percent. That’s… underwhelming. It’s the kind of growth you’d expect from a particularly stubborn houseplant. They used to talk about double-digit growth, but then again, everyone used to talk about a sensible haircut, and look how that turned out.

BellRing Brands: A Falling Knife or a Value Investment?

They have 22% of the ready-to-drink protein shake market, which sounds impressive until you realize how many different kinds of liquids people are willing to drink. Apparently, it’s a competitive space. Who knew? The CEO, Darcy Horn Davenport, explained that everyone is spending more on promotions. It’s like a silent arms race of protein powder and brightly colored packaging. She said the number of events is “tracking modestly ahead of our initial expectations.” Modestly. That’s a word I use when describing my attempts at gardening.

Apparently, some of this promotional spending is “less rational.” Less rational. That’s a polite way of saying people are throwing money at the problem. It reminded me of my brother-in-law’s attempt to build a robot that folds laundry. A lot of money, a lot of effort, and a lot of tangled socks.

Davenport is leaving, which, in the world of corporate leadership, is like the captain abandoning ship during a light drizzle. She tripled sales since 2019, which is good, but now they’re searching for a replacement. It’s always the quiet ones you worry about.

The stock is trading at 10 times free cash flow, which sounds alluring, but I’m a cautious man. I need to see another quarter or two of market share updates. I need to see if the new CEO can navigate the protein shake wars. I need to be absolutely certain before I invest. Mostly, I need a good excuse to tell my wife why I’m obsessing over the financial performance of a company that makes liquid meals.

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2026-02-03 22:12