Oil & Inflation: A Comedy of Errors

Let’s be blunt: filling up your gas tank is about to become a more… intimate experience. More intimate with your wallet, that is. Oil goes in, money goes out. Groundbreaking analysis, I know. But seriously, gas prices are the canary in the coal mine of inflation. They change daily, sometimes hourly. It’s enough to give a macro strategist a nervous twitch. Historically, we’ve seen inflation averages around 3.8%. Pleasant. But we’ve also seen it rocket to 20% in 1920. A time when flappers and high inflation went hand-in-hand. The market doesn’t love high inflation. When it goes above 5%, S&P 500 returns tend to average around 2.4%. It’s like trying to waltz with a lead balloon.





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