ASML’s Remarkable Journey: A Semiconductor Odyssey for 2026 and Beyond

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Following an exceptionally brief and rather grueling sojourn into the world of financial turmoil in April (you might call it “the sell-off that wasn’t”), ASML (ASML) has embarked on a trajectory that can only be described as “astonishingly good”-a precise 45.7% increase in its stock price year-to-date, a feat that’s almost laughable in comparison to the pedestrian 13.4% increase of the S&P 500 (^GSPC). And yet, here we are, witnessing a company that makes the rest of the market look rather like it’s still trying to find its keys in a puddle of spilled coffee.

It would be remiss of me, however, not to take you on a brief but exhilarating journey through ASML’s most recent quarterly results and their *flawlessly optimistic* predictions for 2026. Prepare yourself-this is one of those rare occasions when reality takes a backseat to pure, undiluted triumph.

ASML: Exceeding Expectations, One Laser at a Time

ASML’s third-quarter earnings for 2025 were, quite frankly, better than any reasonable person might expect. They secured a grand total of 7.5 billion euros in net sales, which, I should mention, is one of those numbers that makes you feel slightly dizzy just by looking at it. The forecast for the fourth quarter stands between 9.2 and 9.8 billion euros. This puts the company on track to hit an approximate 32.5 billion euros for the entire year-right smack in the middle of their original 2024 forecast. Because of course, ASML isn’t a company to miss targets-it hits them with the accuracy of a sniper at an Olympic event.

And, if that wasn’t enough to make your eyebrows raise in gentle disbelief, ASML has set its sights on 2030 with revenue expectations in the region of 44 to 60 billion euros, along with a projected gross margin of 56% to 60%. If all goes according to plan, we might find ourselves wondering how they achieved such monumental success-and whether we can convince them to share a few trade secrets.

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The EUV Revolution: Bigger Than a Slice of Really Expensive Cake

And here’s where it gets truly *insane*-the introduction of ASML’s extreme ultraviolet (EUV) machines, which, in terms of transformative impact, are something akin to discovering fire, or possibly the wheel, except instead of helping cavemen, they’re helping modern chip manufacturers print the future. These machines, which are not so much “expensive” as “probably worth a small country,” are set to become a growing segment of ASML’s revenue mix, and, in fact, they’re already causing quite the stir.

In the latest quarter, ASML sold nine of these EUV machines, one of which was the ultra-high-tech high-numerical aperture (high-NA) model. Simple arithmetic (that old friend) tells us that these nine machines were sold for an average price of 400 million euros each, contributing almost entirely to the company’s quarterly sales. As you might expect, this isn’t the sort of thing you see at your local electronics store. (That would be an interesting business model though-imagine picking up an EUV machine with your next tablet purchase!)

The beauty of EUV is that it enables semiconductor fabrication plants to fulfill the *particularly* demanding requirements of cutting-edge applications like artificial intelligence (AI). EUV uses light with a wavelength around 14 times shorter than traditional machines, which means it can print features on chips that are so small they could probably fit into the microscopic gaps between your atoms. This results in chips with far more transistors, which, in turn, equals more computing power and efficiency. Essentially, EUV is what lets chip manufacturers do *magic* without actually having to use wands.

As the demand for increasingly complex chips continues to grow-thanks in no small part to companies like Nvidia, Broadcom, and AMD pushing the boundaries of what’s possible-EUV is set to become even more crucial, especially for chips that fall below the 3-nanometer mark. A revolution in the making? Absolutely. A revolution that’s most definitely happening right now? Absolutely again.

The Brief, Baffling and Predictably Bumpy Road Ahead

However, even the best-laid plans can encounter the occasional bump, as ASML learned in July, when the company’s stock took a bit of a nosedive due to the looming uncertainties of 2026. Apparently, macroeconomic factors, trade tensions, and other vague but ominous forces made it difficult to predict the future with the same unshakable confidence as before. The company has since reassured everyone that 2026 will not see a decline in net sales compared to 2025, which is, you know, a bit of a relief. However, there’s one glaring reason for this less-than-great-but-still-acceptable forecast-China.

ASML anticipates a *significant* dip in demand from Chinese customers in 2026, which is somewhat concerning given that China accounted for 42% of ASML’s system sales volume in the most recent quarter. Ah yes, trade policies-those pesky, inescapable things that seem to cause a spot of bother whenever you’re trying to do something as simple as selling semiconductor equipment across international borders. And while ASML may be based in the Netherlands, its alignment with the U.S. on trade policy is something that could make or break future deals with China. If only international trade were as simple as swapping lunches in school cafeterias, but I digress.

Conclusion: ASML Still a Solid Bet for the Brave, the Bold, and the Slightly Mad

Despite all the cosmic uncertainties swirling around it-macro-uncertainty, geopolitical turbulence, the mysterious ways of semiconductor markets-ASML remains an absolute *solid* buy. The company continues to serve as a vital cog in the chip-manufacturing machine (pardon the pun), with a reasonable valuation, a dividend payout, and an unassailable runway for decades of growth. You could easily do worse than bet on this behemoth, even if its future growth might not feel as immediately satisfying as your daily cup of coffee.

So, if you find yourself questioning the outrageous valuations of AI growth stocks and wondering where you can plant your money in a more *pragmatic* way, look no further than ASML. A company dedicated to building the very future of computing, one ridiculously expensive machine at a time. 🚀

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2025-10-19 20:36