Right. Let’s talk about Archer Aviation ([ACHR +0.71%]). Because frankly, I’ve been staring at this stock, and it’s like a slightly disastrous date: you know it’s probably a terrible idea, but there’s something… compelling. They build electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft – eVTOLs, if you’re feeling fancy – and they haven’t exactly set the world on fire since their SPAC debut back in 2021. Opened at $9.90, now trading around $6. It’s the sort of thing that makes you question all your life choices, really.
They promised the moon – ten Midnight eVTOLs in 2024, 250 in 2025. Instead? Two. Just two. It’s like ordering a full English breakfast and getting a single, slightly sad, mushroom. Disappointing, isn’t it? But here’s the thing: I’m not entirely put off. Because sometimes, the most spectacular returns come from the things everyone else is avoiding. It’s a personal philosophy, don’t judge.
Last year, they managed a paltry $0.3 million in revenue while losing $618.2 million. Ouch. Numbers that would make most investors run screaming. But I’m seeing potential. If – and it’s a colossal ‘if’ – they can actually scale production over the next decade, we could be looking at a ten-bagger. Or more. Don’t tell my financial advisor I said that.
Why All the Fuss?
Okay, so the Midnight eVTOL. It carries a pilot and four passengers, can travel up to 100 miles on a single charge, and hits 150 mph. Think helicopters, but greener and easier to land in cities. Which, let’s be honest, is a good thing. The current helicopter situation is… stressful. They’ve got an “indicative” backlog of $6 billion – about 1,200 aircraft. United Airlines ([UAL 0.95%]), Future Flight Global, even Japan Airlines ([JAPSY 2.01%]) and Sumitomo ([OTC:SSUM.F]) are all interested. Ethiopian Airlines, Abu Dhabi Aviation… the list goes on. They all want to use these for short-range air taxis. And Stellantis ([STLA +0.00%]) is building them, which is… convenient. Like a very expensive, slightly terrifying, jigsaw puzzle falling into place.
Analysts are predicting revenue of $512.4 million by 2028. With a market cap of $5.5 billion, that’s a reasonable valuation – 11 times that estimate. Not exactly cheap, but not insane either. It’s the sort of number that makes you think, “Okay, maybe this isn’t a complete disaster.”
Let’s Talk About the Mess
Here’s where it gets tricky. The FAA hasn’t approved commercial flights yet. And those flights in Abu Dhabi, scheduled for this year? Probably delayed, thanks to everything happening in the Middle East. Honestly, it’s a bit of a geopolitical minefield. So, until the FAA gives the green light and the situation stabilizes, this stock is going to be… volatile. Let’s just say that. It’s the sort of thing that keeps me up at night, questioning all my investment choices.
But, the global eVTOL market is expected to grow at a 23.5% CAGR from 2025 to 2034. Which is… significant. So, if Archer can overcome its challenges and actually start delivering aircraft, the potential upside is enormous. It’s a high-risk, high-reward scenario. And, frankly, I’m a sucker for those. Don’t tell anyone.
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2026-03-11 22:04