Archer Aviation: A Flight of Fancy?

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Now, there’s been a good deal of excitement, a veritable hullabaloo, concerning Archer Aviation (ACHR +0.74%). Folks are betting their shillings—or, in this modern age, their digital digits—on the notion of electric contraptions taking to the skies like so many iron birds. Over the past three years, the share price has done a jig, climbing a good 153%. A tidy sum, to be sure, but whether it’s built on solid ground or a puff of vapor, well, that’s what we’re here to consider.

They say the company’s aiming for commercial flights by 2028, even dreaming of ferrying folks to and fro during the Los Angeles Olympics. And there’s talk of Abu Dhabi flights, expanding, and generating revenue. They’ve even gone and purchased an airport near Los Angeles, Hawthorne, which, bless its heart, already turns a profit. Though, mind you, that profit ain’t comin’ from these fancy flying machines, but from good, old-fashioned terrestrial business.

A Revenue Forecast Worth a Second Look

Analysts, those seers of the financial world, predict a revenue of $967 million by the end of 2028. A handsome figure, indeed. But I’ve been around the track a few times, and I’ve learned that forecasts are often built on more hope than observation. Archer will likely finish 2025 with little to no actual revenue from these airborne carriages. Estimating demand for something that barely exists is a bit like trying to nail jelly to a wall – a messy and uncertain business. The eVTOL market, you see, is still in its infancy. We’re guessing at how many flights will actually occur, and that, my friends, involves a considerable amount of wishful thinking.

Spending Money Like Water

Now, Archer isn’t showing a profit at the moment, and I reckon it’s unlikely to change that in the next three years. Their net loss, by generally accepted accounting principles, was nearly $130 million in the last quarter of 2025, a good 13% higher than the year before. They’ve been spendin’ money like a sailor on shore leave, developin’ this aircraft technology and expandin’ the business. Expenses are climbin’ faster than a greased pig. They’ve got about $2 billion in liquidity, enough to keep the wheels turnin’ for a spell, but they’ve also made a few moves that don’t sit right with a prudent investor, like raisin’ $650 million through a stock sale that diluted the value for those who’ve been holdin’ on.

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They’ve set a goal of producin’ 650 aircraft a year, a laudable ambition, to be sure. But as of mid-2025, they had only six in production and a mere three near completion. Seems they’re a bit behind schedule, wouldn’t you say?

A Prudent Investor’s Perspective

Now, I’m not sayin’ Archer isn’t makin’ some progress. But there are too many drawbacks to ignore. Little to no revenue, risin’ costs, and no profit in sight. Investors buyin’ Archer right now are bettin’ big on the company meetin’ its goals and analysts’ predictions. With expectations already sky-high—the share price is up 155% over the past three years—and the underlying business still unproven, I reckon a sensible investor would sit this one out for the time bein’. There are plenty of other fish in the sea, and some of them, I suspect, are a good deal less likely to fly off with your money.

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2026-02-18 16:23