Archer Aviation: A Flight of Fancy?

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The air, it seems, is thick with optimism these days. Investors, bless their hearts, are captivated by the notion of vertical takeoff and landing machines – eVTOLs, they call them – promising a future where commuting resembles something out of a Jules Verne novel. The market, if one believes the projections (and one shouldn’t believe everything, naturally), could reach $27 billion by 2034. A sum large enough to tempt even the most cautious of souls… or, shall we say, the most easily distracted.

Archer Aviation (ACHR 3.23%), a company dedicated to crafting these airborne contraptions – specifically, a model called Midnight – has enjoyed a considerable surge in its share price. A surge, I might add, fueled more by dreams of effortless travel than by, well, actual revenue. They’ve been forging partnerships, securing certifications, and generally creating the impression of progress. A fine art, that is. A very fine art indeed.

The stock has appreciated by a rather impressive 186% over the last three years. Now hovering around the $8 mark, the question arises: is this a propitious moment for investment? My assessment, after a thorough examination (and a healthy dose of skepticism), is a resounding ‘no’. It’s a bit like admiring a beautifully painted stage set – charming, yes, but lacking any structural integrity.

The Allure of the Untested

Let’s acknowledge the points in Archer’s favor. They do have an aircraft that, at least on paper, appears functional. Midnight has completed several test flights, and they’re diligently pursuing certifications from various countries. They’ve also managed to secure partnerships with United Airlines and Southwest Airlines, and received a rather substantial investment from Stellantis. A network of connections, certainly. Whether those connections translate into profits is another matter entirely.

Furthermore, Archer boasts over $2 billion in liquidity. A comforting sum, one would think. However, a significant portion – $650 million, to be precise – arrived through a stock sale, effectively diluting the value for existing shareholders. A rather clever maneuver, if you’re the one issuing the shares. Less so if you’re on the receiving end.

The Peculiar Absence of Commerce

Here’s where the narrative takes a distinctly… interesting turn. Archer generates no revenue. None. After more than four years of public trading, the company remains stubbornly devoid of sales. It’s a remarkable achievement, really. A testament to the power of hope, perhaps, or a particularly effective marketing campaign.

The CEO, Adam Goldstein, recently suggested to Bloomberg that revenue might materialize this year, potentially from an air taxi service in Abu Dhabi. A promising development, to be sure. Though, considering they don’t anticipate full-scale passenger flights until 2028, one suspects these initial revenues will be… modest. A trickle, rather than a flood.

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And the losses? They’re widening. The third quarter of 2025 saw a GAAP net loss of nearly $130 million – a 13% increase year-over-year. Operating expenses have jumped 43%. It’s a financial performance that would make even a seasoned magician blanch. One begins to suspect that the disappearing act involves investor capital.

Finally, let’s not forget the fundamental uncertainty. Archer is attempting to launch a service in a completely unproven market. Will there be sufficient demand? How will they compete? Can they ever achieve profitability? These are not trivial questions. They are, in fact, the very questions that should be keeping investors awake at night.

Investing always carries risk, naturally. But with Archer, the risks seem… particularly pronounced. The recent stock gains appear to be driven by speculation and momentum, rather than by sound fundamentals. It’s a bit like betting on a horse that hasn’t yet learned to run. An amusing spectacle, perhaps, but hardly a prudent investment.

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2026-02-01 16:02