Apple at $350? Let’s Be Realistic.

Right. Apple. The tech behemoth. Berkshire Hathaway’s little darling. Honestly, watching Warren Buffett get all misty-eyed over this stock is… endearing. And profitable, obviously. It’s like watching your eccentric uncle finally make a sensible investment. They bought in way back when, and the returns? Let’s just say I’m slightly jealous. I mean, slightly. But $3.8 trillion market cap? That’s…a lot of iPhones. So, the question is, can it hit $350 by 2026? Let’s unpack that, shall we? Because if you’re expecting a straight answer, you’ve come to the wrong place.

Huge Gains Aren’t Exactly Unexpected, Are They?

Thirty-five percent. That’s what we’re talking about. From $260 to $350. Not insignificant, obviously. But Apple’s track record… it’s almost irritatingly consistent. They’ve had some stellar years – 34% in ’21, a frankly ridiculous 48% in ’23, and a respectable 30% this year. Over the decade? A 942% climb. I’m starting to feel inadequate with my own portfolio. A 26.4% CAGR… it’s almost unfair. It makes you wonder if they’re rigging the market. (I’m joking. Mostly.) And right now? It’s down 9% from its peak. A little dip. A buying opportunity? Maybe. Or maybe it’s just the universe reminding us that nothing gold can stay.

Let’s Not Pretend There’s No Downside

Look, Apple’s a good company. An exceptionally good company. Brand value through the roof, hardware and software that play nicely (mostly), an ecosystem that sucks you in and politely asks for your firstborn. It’s all very…polished. And the gross margins? A consistent 30.6% over the last five years. They can charge what they want, and people will line up. It’s frankly terrifying. Last year, $112 billion in net income. Enough to fund dividends, share buybacks, and probably a small island nation. But here’s the thing. It’s expensive. A P/E ratio of 34.7? That’s…ambitious. The ten-year average is 24.6. So, we’re paying a premium. And the analysts? They’re projecting a $288 price target. 11% upside. They’re either being polite or they haven’t noticed the valuation. Or, they’re just hoping for the best, like the rest of us.

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The Catalyst? Don’t Hold Your Breath

Okay, so what could really move the needle? iPhone sales, obviously. They were up 6% last quarter. Good. Leadership is expecting double-digit growth next quarter. Even better. But let’s be real, everyone already has an iPhone. The low-hanging fruit has been picked. And now they’ve partnered with Alphabet – Gemini AI integration. Clever. If it actually makes Apple Intelligence compelling enough to drive hardware sales, great. But I’m not betting the farm on it. It’s a nice story, but stories don’t always translate to profits. Look, I think Apple will post solid growth. But “outsized” gains? I doubt it. The devices are ubiquitous. The market is saturated. So, a 35% climb to $350? Honestly? I’d say there’s less than a 50% chance. And I’m being generous. It’s a good company. But it’s not magic. And sometimes, even the best companies just… plateau. And that, my friends, is the cold, hard truth. Don’t shoot the messenger.

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2026-01-19 21:02