Analysts Stunned: Bitcoin Suddenly Calmer Than Wall Street, Leaves S&P & Nasdaq in the Dust 🎢🦾

by

April’s market drama was unfolding with all the subtlety of a rhinoceros in a billiard room, yet, in a twist worthy of a Gothic comedy, Bitcoin experienced a most uncharacteristic spell of composure. While the world braced itself for another episode of crypto-induced heart palpitations, Bitcoin quietly pirouetted through double-digit gains—its volatility, for once, thoroughly outdone by those perennial bastions of dullness, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100.

According to Galaxy Digital’s unimpeachable analysts (proprietors of much coffee and even more stress balls), Bitcoin’s realized volatility during the past ten trading sessions dipped to a positively lethargic 43.86. For those keeping score, the S&P clocked in at 47.29 and the Nasdaq pulled a showy 51.26. Consider: the digital enfant terrible of speculative finance showing up to the party in a sensible cardigan, quietly sipping tea, while the old money set starts breakdancing on the tables.

The backdrop, of course, was more financial chaos. US President Trump, ever eager to sprinkle some excitement on the markets, brought forth a Liberation Day tariff on April 2. The result: indexes gave their best impression of startled poodles. The Nasdaq Composite entered a state best described as “vaguely comatose,” the Bloomberg Dollar Index suffered an existential crisis—tumbling nearly 4%—and gold, ever the drama queen, flirted with $3,500 an ounce before slumping back in embarrassment to a rather frail 5.75% gain.

Not so for Bitcoin, which, channeling the spirit of old Etonian stockbrokers who always win at bridge, surged 11%. The message? When the world is losing its collective nerve, Bitcoin is the chap in the corner quietly running up the score.

Bitcoin and the Art of Nonchalance

Of course, Bitcoin is not yet entirely divorced from its more neurotic cousins. Its 30-day correlations with the major indexes remain rather elevated—0.62 with the S&P and 0.64 with the Nasdaq. But its beta, that measurement of just how much trouble an asset can manufacture, has declined. Are investors beginning to view Bitcoin as something more than “hyperactive roulette”? One can only assume they are taking their vitamins. Chris Rhine of Galaxy—who must have a constitution of steel—points out that Bitcoin’s non-sovereign status excuses investors from pledging fidelity to kings, queens, or, dare one say, tax regimes.

Déjà vu abounds: The behavior echoes Bitcoin’s triumphant sashay during the US-China trade tensions of 2018–2019, a time when Bitcoin rather enjoyed itself while the rest of the world tried not to hyperventilate. Kronos Research’s Hank Huang—presumably with a straight face—suggests that inflows from institutional ETFs and persistent, strategic “buying the dip” are transforming Bitcoin into a digital gold. One imagines gold nervously straightening its cravat.

“As institutions deepen liquidity, volatility drops, making Bitcoin a cornerstone for portfolios,” added Huang, no doubt while checking his own portfolio’s vital signs. Meanwhile, Galaxy’s OTC trading desk describes the climate as “tactically cautious but structurally constructive”—the kind of thing one says when one is absolutely certain of nothing, but hopes the market doesn’t notice.

With 95% of Bitcoin’s total supply already mined and an ever-expanding cast of suitors—including ETFs, institutions, and a handful of governments—Bitcoin is looking suspiciously mature, like a university don after two glasses of sherry. Ian Kolman of Galaxy couldn’t resist noting the “solidifying” of Bitcoin’s status as a digital store of value, presumably glancing over his shoulder at the battered remains of what used to be fiat currencies.

Even BlackRock’s Jay Jacobs joined the party. He observes that, with geopolitical cracks widening, more countries are stashing gold and now Bitcoin under their metaphorical mattresses. When even gold is admitting Bitcoin to the club, you know the times, as the poets say, are a-changin’.

Read More

2025-05-13 15:22