Analyst on Evolution of Altcoin Trading: From Betting on Potential Disruptors to ‘An Honest Bubble Casino’

by

As a seasoned crypto investor with a decade under my belt, Willy Woo’s analysis resonates deeply with me. I remember the 2017 altcoin boom like it was yesterday – the euphoria, the FOMO, and the subsequent heartbreak as prices plummeted. I’ve been through two cycles since then, each one teaching me a hard-earned lesson about the volatile nature of the altcoin market.

Known cryptocurrency expert, Willy Woo, has resurfaced in the altcoin world following a significant hiatus.

On October 26, 2024, he expressed his views about the development of the altcoin market on X (previously known as Twitter), focusing on the changes that have occurred throughout multiple cycles.

Woo noted that he distanced himself from altcoins years ago, observing the generally poor performance of thousands of tokens over time. However, Woo acknowledged that the current cycle is significantly different from previous ones, marking the third major cycle since altcoins went mainstream in 2017. Woo pointed out that each cycle has attracted a fresh wave of retail investors, many of whom have faced substantial losses.

Woo explained that the first cycle, which peaked in 2017, saw altcoins gain widespread attention, only to leave many retail investors burned as prices crashed. He further noted that the second cycle, occurring between 2020 and 2021, was driven by a surge in interest around DeFi (Decentralized Finance) and NFTs (Non-Fungible Tokens), leading to similar losses for new entrants. Woo emphasized that the third and current cycle has taken on a different character, with meme coins at the forefront. He described these tokens as acknowledging their speculative nature, openly positioning themselves as “bubble casinos” without any claims of technological disruption.

Woo suggested that retail investors may finally be starting to grasp the patterns of the market, remarking that “normally it takes three tries at a thing to learn.” Woo implied that the collective mindset of the market is shifting, with participants becoming more cautious about the narratives often associated with altcoins.

Woo highlighted the long-term trends in the altcoin dominance chart, likening it to a slow-motion version of the COVID-19 market crash. According to Woo, there have been periods when speculation suggested that altcoins could surpass Bitcoin in dominance, but over time, these trends tend to stabilize, returning to a more balanced state. Woo observed that this reversion to balance has not yet been fully realized, leaving open the question of what the final equilibrium will be.

Woo acknowledged that “alt seasons”—when altcoins outperform Bitcoin—are likely to persist, but he anticipates that they will become less pronounced with each cycle. He compared this to equities markets, where smaller, riskier assets often rally following major moves by large-cap assets. Woo believes that future alt seasons will never match the scale of the 2017 altcoin boom.

Woo compared the ever-changing altcoin market capitalization to a cricket bat that’s been replaced multiple times, with new handles and blades added over time. He pointed out that successful projects increase the market cap, while unsuccessful ones are discarded. This ongoing change showcases the speculative nature of altcoins, so Woo advised potential investors to exercise caution when investing in this field.

According to Woo, while it’s possible to make money by trading altcoins, he strongly recommends against holding them for extended periods unless you possess inside information. Woo likens the altcoin market to a casino where those with insider knowledge (like the house in a casino) have an advantage over time.

The dialogue broadened when Bill Barhydt, the CEO of Abra, entered the chat, proposing a division between Bitcoin’s function as a digital form of gold and the developing world of alternative coins (altcoins). In Barhydt’s view, Bitcoin has solidified its position as a store of value, while emerging altcoin platforms like Solana, Sui, and Aptos are preparing to manage scalable, cost-effective peer-to-peer transactions. According to him, these platforms are paving the way for financial apps, retail banking, and real-world applications.

Woo concurred with Barhydt’s viewpoint, describing the upcoming trends in the cryptocurrency sector as a separation between “digital gold” and other types of digital assets. To clarify this distinction, he projected that the market for assets that serve as a store of value, such as Bitcoin, could potentially reach parity with the global economy. On the other hand, the remaining market—which includes various altcoins primarily serving as platforms—would be fragmented among numerous projects, each striving to establish significance in an ever-changing environment.

Woo elaborated on the characteristics of altcoin platforms, likening them to different programming languages and runtime environments that rise and fall in prominence. In his view, these platforms don’t have a fixed guarantee of lasting success, much like Fortran, Java, or Rust—technologies that were once dominant but eventually lost their dominance to newer alternatives. Woo emphasized that these platforms adapt according to market needs, with their relevance constantly evolving over time.

In summary, Woo pointed out that the changing characteristics of altcoin markets follow a repeating pattern, and those who are part of these systems, like insiders, often have the upper hand in achieving long-term prosperity.

Read More

2024-10-28 16:22