Amentum: A Little Dip, A Lot of Questions

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Right. Amentum. (AMTM 1.51%). It all started so promisingly this year. Honestly, I was feeling quite pleased with myself. Up 27.2% since January 1st, while the S&P 500 was, let’s be honest, just sort of there (up 1.3%). I was beginning to think I might actually be good at this whole investing thing. Then Monday happened. And now? Well, now it’s a bit like discovering your best dress has a stain right before a big event.

The numbers, as of Thursday’s close, are down 19.9% from last Friday. Which, let’s be clear, is not a percentage one enjoys seeing. It’s the sort of number that makes you question all your life choices, and possibly the existence of a rational market.

Mixed Signals and a General Vibe of “Meh”

They reported Q1 earnings of $0.54 per share, which, okay, beat analyst expectations of $0.52. Small victories, I suppose. But then came the revenue. They were hoping for $3.32 billion, and ended up with $3.24 billion. A 5% year-over-year decrease. It’s like ordering a large coffee and getting a medium. You’re not entirely devastated, but you’re definitely a little disappointed.

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And the free cash flow. Oh, the free cash flow. Negative $142 million. Last year it was positive $102 million. It’s a swing, shall we say. A rather large swing. It’s like expecting a windfall and getting a bill. It makes you wonder where all the money went. Possibly to a very nice office refurbishment?

They’re forecasting revenue of $13.95 to $14.3 billion for the year, with about 3% growth. And adjusted EBITDA of $1.1 to $1.14 billion, up about 5%. Which sounds…fine. Perfectly adequate. Not exactly setting the world on fire, but not a disaster either. It’s the sort of forecast that makes you want to lie down with a cup of tea.

A Buying Opportunity? Or Just a Trap?

Look, I’m all for a good bargain, but Amentum is currently trading at 75.2 times trailing earnings. That’s…a lot. It’s like paying a small fortune for a slightly chipped teacup. I mean, you could, but should you? There are other nuclear energy stocks out there, you know. Ones that aren’t quite so…expensive. Ones that don’t make you feel slightly anxious every time you look at the chart.

Units of Amentum Stock Owned: Decreasing. Hours Spent Analyzing Financial Statements: Increasing. Number of Times I’ve Considered Becoming a Beekeeper Instead: 7. Perhaps a simpler life is the answer after all.

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2026-02-13 04:02