You want to know about the future, pal? Easy. Just follow the money and the burned-out footprints leading away from yesterday’s promises. The names are Alphabet and Tesla—two heavyweights standing under the same flickering neon, but looking in different directions. One pretends it’s not in the electric vehicle racket. The other, well, it pretends it’s just about cars. That’s a good one.
Alphabet—most people still call it Google, like a ghost that won’t leave the house—owns Waymo: an operation that runs on electric dreams, or more accurately, electric vehicles. Not that it shows its hand. There’s a dignity in smoke and mirrors. Tesla, wearing its stock price like a halo of cigarette smoke, gets its value from robotaxis—or the wild hope of them. The paradox is thick enough to choke a night watchman.
This isn’t just a story about two companies. It’s about the world they’re trying to build—a world where nobody drives, nobody owns, and the streetlights blink to the rhythm of algorithms. Does it matter if Alphabet sells you ads or rides? Or if Tesla swaps batteries for the honor of chauffeuring the digital elite? Only if you’re paid to care.
Alphabet vs. Tesla
Picture this: Alphabet might spin off Waymo. You do that when the baby’s gotten too big for the crib—and the numbers are getting numbers of their own, maybe $45 billion’s worth. Meanwhile, there’s Cathie Wood and her collection of Wall Street butterflies, betting Tesla’s robotaxis could drive the stock up to $2,600 by 2029. It’s optimism with a side of amnesia; the past is filled with paper millionaires who died of valuation poisoning.
Me, I take Wall Street’s dreams like I take my whiskey—neat, but suspicious. ARK’s guesses on Tesla are as reliable as a sunshower’s alibi. The logic is simple, though: if you’re going to pick a kingpin, pick the one who can make a buck without ransoming the family jewels. That’s Tesla, in theory. In theory, a lot of things look sturdy until the termites get hungry.
Pathways to Profitability
Profitability. The word hangs in the air like a streetlamp in a fog. Waymo’s co-CEO Tekedra Mawakana won’t give a date; she just says it could happen. That’s like telling the DA you’ll return the money after you win the next hand. Maybe Alphabet’s counting cubes behind frosted glass. Or maybe the future is “not clear”—the analyst’s way of hiding a losing hand until someone calls the bluff.
One thing I’ve learned in twenty years poking around corporate back alleys: if you can’t say when you’ll make a buck, you’re just painting a fresh target on your own back. It doesn’t matter if it’s $45 billion in dreams or peanuts and a handshake—eventually, someone wants to see the receipts.
Tesla and Timelines
Waymo talks up the horizon—started its ride-hailing in 2018, makes all the right noises, but the clock ticks louder every night. Tesla? The only thing Elon’s on time for is his own bedtime stories. In 2019, he said a million robotaxis by 2020. In 2022, a Cybercab army by 2024—now prompt and rescheduled for 2026. In my line of work, timelines slip quiet as rain off a gutter, and optimistic projections end up wrapped in old newspapers.
If you pencil in guesswork and call it a strategy, you’ll wake up with numbers that don’t recognize you. That’s business arithmetic in the land of make-believe.
Why Tesla Is Better Positioned
Tesla plays a crooked game, but it’s the only one in town with a dealer’s license. Lower costs—Musk says a $30,000 robotaxi, the Cybercab, before the decade gets too old. Waymo’s costing north of $120,000 a pop, at least if you believe the folks with calculators for hearts. Tesla builds its own cars, and any Model S with a mind of its own can be reborn as a robotaxi. Waymo? It hopes its partners don’t call in sick.
- Tesla’s FSD—the self-driving software hiding behind closed doors—will turn any garage into a taxi depot the second it’s street legal. That’s the big edge.
- Camera eyes versus Lidar lasers. One is cheap. The other makes your accountant reach for the antacids.
- Every Tesla streams data back home. Billions of miles, every mistake and every pothole. Waymo might have started first, but Tesla’s playing at a different scale, like a private detective who puts microphones in every payphone.
Which is the Better EV Stock?
Maybe Waymo gets profitable. Maybe Lidar costs drop, and Hell finally freezes over. If Tesla cracks unsupervised Full Self-Driving with its camera-heavy schtick, it could own the city after dark—if. The world’s full of ifs. Still, every month that passes, “if” gets a little smaller, the shadows get shorter, and the scent of robotaxi gasoline lingers a little longer in the alley.
Next stop for Tesla’s robotaxis is Phoenix. The pace is slow—slower than a city council meeting in a heatwave. But momentum is what it is. If you forced me to choose—and the world loves a coin toss—I’d say Tesla. But then, nobody ever said the future was loyal.
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2025-07-27 20:23