Alphabet & The Slightly Improbable Robotaxi Future

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The future, as is its wont, is arriving in bits and pieces. Currently, those pieces are mostly self-driving cars, specifically the robotaxi variety, and a surprising number of them seem to be originating from a company you might know as Alphabet (GOOG 1.08%)(GOOGL 1.24%). Now, before you start imagining a world entirely populated by polite, algorithmically-optimized vehicles (a thought which, frankly, is slightly terrifying), it’s worth noting that Tesla (TSLA 1.63%) is also involved. But, and this is a crucial ‘but’ – a ‘but’ of almost cosmological significance – Alphabet, through its Waymo subsidiary, appears to be taking the lead. Which, when you consider the sheer improbability of anything taking a lead in this particular race, is rather remarkable.

Let’s be clear: we’re not talking about a simple case of ‘cars that drive themselves’. We’re talking about a complete reimagining of personal transportation, a system where you simply exist and are then conveyed to your desired location. It’s a concept so alien to our current experience that it requires a significant mental recalibration. (It’s a bit like trying to explain the internet to a particularly stubborn badger. Possible, but requiring an extraordinary amount of patience and a detailed diagram involving biscuits.)

Waymo: Scaling the Improbable

Waymo, according to recent pronouncements (and one must always approach pronouncements with a healthy dose of skepticism, especially those involving self-driving vehicles), anticipates a substantial increase in its robotaxi ridership. They’re aiming for over a million paid rides per week by the end of 2026. That’s a 150% jump from their current 400,000 weekly journeys. The logistics of this are, frankly, mind-boggling. (Imagine coordinating that many vehicles, ensuring they don’t all decide to simultaneously visit the same coffee shop. The resulting chaos would be… significant.) They’re currently operating in six US cities and plan to expand to twenty more this year, including, rather ambitiously, London and Tokyo.

A Technological Edge? (Or Just a Slightly Better Algorithm?)

Waymo recently unveiled its sixth-generation Waymo Driver. This, they claim, represents a significant leap forward in autonomous driving technology. It boasts a new high-resolution sensor (17 megapixels, which, when you think about it, is an awful lot of pixels for a car) and sixth-generation LiDAR. (LiDAR, for the uninitiated, is a system that uses lasers to create a 3D map of the surrounding environment. It’s essentially giving the car the ability to ‘see’ using light. Which, when you consider that humans see using light too, is a rather elegant solution.) The company asserts this will improve driving capabilities, particularly in inclement weather, and reduce operational costs. They’re also scaling up vehicle production in Phoenix, aiming for “tens of thousands” annually.

Tesla, meanwhile, offers its Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology. However, it hasn’t quite reached the same scale as Waymo. Their robotaxi service is currently limited to Austin, Texas, and still requires human safety supervisors. (Which raises the philosophical question: if a human is supervising, is it really self-driving? It’s a bit like calling a bicycle ‘motorized’ because you’re occasionally pushing it uphill.)

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Now, let’s be perfectly clear: we’re still in the very early stages of this technological revolution. The profitability of robotaxi services remains uncertain, and their impact on Alphabet’s stock price is, as yet, unknown. However, based on the available evidence, Waymo appears to be the frontrunner in this particular race. (Though, given the sheer improbability of anything being a ‘frontrunner’ in a field this chaotic, it’s a somewhat tenuous claim.) If one were inclined to invest in the future of autonomous transportation, Alphabet stock would, at this juncture, seem a reasonably logical choice. (Though, of course, one should always consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. And perhaps a particularly insightful badger.)

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2026-02-18 13:02